Application of machine learning techniques for predicting survival in ovarian cancer. 2022

Amir Sorayaie Azar, and Samin Babaei Rikan, and Amin Naemi, and Jamshid Bagherzadeh Mohasefi, and Habibollah Pirnejad, and Matin Bagherzadeh Mohasefi, and Uffe Kock Wiil
Department of Computer Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

Ovarian cancer is the fifth leading cause of mortality among women in the United States. Ovarian cancer is also known as forgotten cancer or silent disease. The survival of ovarian cancer patients depends on several factors, including the treatment process and the prognosis. The ovarian cancer patients' dataset is compiled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. With the help of a clinician, the dataset is curated, and the most relevant features are selected. Pearson's second coefficient of skewness test is used to evaluate the skewness of the dataset. Pearson correlation coefficient is also used to investigate the associations between features. Statistical test is utilized to evaluate the significance of the features. Six Machine Learning (ML) models, including K-Nearest Neighbors , Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), are implemented for survival prediction in both classification and regression approaches. An interpretable method, Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), is applied to clarify the decision-making process and determine the importance of each feature in prediction. Additionally, DTs of the RF model are displayed to show how the model predicts the survival intervals. Our results show that RF (Accuracy = 88.72%, AUC = 82.38%) and XGBoost (Root Mean Squad Error (RMSE)) = 20.61%, R2 = 0.4667) have the best performance for classification and regression approaches, respectively. Furthermore, using the SHAP method along with extracted DTs of the RF model, the most important features in the dataset are identified. Histologic type ICD-O-3, chemotherapy recode, year of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, tumor stage, and grade are the most important determinant factors in survival prediction. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first study that develops various ML models to predict ovarian cancer patients' survival on the SEER database in both classification and regression approaches. These ML algorithms also achieve more accurate results and outperform statistical methods. Furthermore, our study is the first study to use the SHAP method to increase confidence and transparency of the proposed models' prediction for clinicians. Moreover, our developed models, as an automated auxiliary tool, can help clinicians to have a better understanding of the estimated survival as well as important features that affect survival.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D010051 Ovarian Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the OVARY. These neoplasms can be benign or malignant. They are classified according to the tissue of origin, such as the surface EPITHELIUM, the stromal endocrine cells, and the totipotent GERM CELLS. Cancer of Ovary,Ovarian Cancer,Cancer of the Ovary,Neoplasms, Ovarian,Ovary Cancer,Ovary Neoplasms,Cancer, Ovarian,Cancer, Ovary,Cancers, Ovarian,Cancers, Ovary,Neoplasm, Ovarian,Neoplasm, Ovary,Neoplasms, Ovary,Ovarian Cancers,Ovarian Neoplasm,Ovary Cancers,Ovary Neoplasm
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000093743 Random Forest An algorithm used in decision analysis and MACHINE LEARNING that uses a set of trees to combine output of multiple, randomly generated DECISION TREES. The final class of each tree is aggregated and evaluated by weighted values to construct the final classifier. Random Forest Algorithm,Random Forest Classification,Algorithm, Random Forest,Classification, Random Forest,Random Forest Algorithms,Random Forest Classifications,Random Forests
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm

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