Assessing dengue fever risk in Costa Rica by using climate variables and machine learning techniques. 2023

Luis A Barboza, and Shu-Wei Chou-Chen, and Paola Vásquez, and Yury E García, and Juan G Calvo, and Hugo G Hidalgo, and Fabio Sanchez
Centro de Investigación en Matemática Pura y Aplicada - Escuela de Matemática, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica.

Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease affecting millions yearly, mostly in tropical and subtropical countries. Driven mainly by social and environmental factors, dengue incidence and geographical expansion have increased in recent decades. Therefore, understanding how climate variables drive dengue outbreaks is challenging and a problem of interest for decision-makers that could aid in improving surveillance and resource allocation. Here, we explore the effect of climate variables on relative dengue risk in 32 cantons of interest for public health authorities in Costa Rica. Relative dengue risk is forecast using a Generalized Additive Model for location, scale, and shape and a Random Forest approach. Models use a training period from 2000 to 2020 and predicted climatic variables obtained with a vector auto-regressive model. Results show reliable projections, and climate variables predictions allow for a prospective instead of a retrospective study.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D003364 Costa Rica A country in CENTRAL AMERICA, bordering both the Caribbean Sea and the North Pacific Ocean, between NICARAGUA and PANAMA.
D003715 Dengue An acute febrile disease transmitted by the bite of AEDES mosquitoes infected with DENGUE VIRUS. It is self-limiting and characterized by fever, myalgia, headache, and rash. SEVERE DENGUE is a more virulent form of dengue. Dengue Fever,Break-Bone Fever,Breakbone Fever,Classical Dengue,Classical Dengue Fever,Break Bone Fever,Classical Dengue Fevers,Classical Dengues,Dengue Fever, Classical,Dengue, Classical,Fever, Break-Bone,Fever, Breakbone,Fever, Dengue
D004196 Disease Outbreaks Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS. Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000072138 Mosquito Vectors Mosquitoes (members of the family CULICIDAE) that transmit pathogens or their intermediate forms from one host to another. Mosquito Vector,Vector, Mosquito,Vectors, Mosquito
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D015994 Incidence The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time. Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates

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