Twenty-eight-day in-hospital mortality prediction for elderly patients with ischemic stroke in the intensive care unit: Interpretable machine learning models. 2022

Jian Huang, and Wanlin Jin, and Xiangjie Duan, and Xiaozhu Liu, and Tingting Shu, and Li Fu, and Jiewen Deng, and Huaqiao Chen, and Guojing Liu, and Ying Jiang, and Ziru Liu
Department of General Surgery, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China.

Risk stratification of elderly patients with ischemic stroke (IS) who are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) remains a challenging task. This study aims to establish and validate predictive models that are based on novel machine learning (ML) algorithms for 28-day in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with IS who were admitted to the ICU. Data of elderly patients with IS were extracted from the electronic intensive care unit (eICU) Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) records of those elderly patients admitted between 2014 and 2015. All selected participants were randomly divided into two sets: a training set and a validation set in the ratio of 8:2. ML algorithms, such as Naïve Bayes (NB), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (xgboost), and logistic regression (LR), were applied for model construction utilizing 10-fold cross-validation. The performance of models was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis and accuracy. The present study uses interpretable ML methods to provide insight into the model's prediction and outcome using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. As regards the population demographics and clinical characteristics, the analysis in the present study included 1,236 elderly patients with IS in the ICU, of whom 164 (13.3%) died during hospitalization. As regards feature selection, a total of eight features were selected for model construction. In the training set, both the xgboost and NB models showed specificity values of 0.989 and 0.767, respectively. In the internal validation set, the xgboost model identified patients who died with an AUC value of 0.733 better than the LR model which identified patients who died with an AUC value of 0.627 or the NB model 0.672. The xgboost model shows the best predictive performance that predicts mortality in elderly patients with IS in the ICU. By making the ML model explainable, physicians would be able to understand better the reasoning behind the outcome.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007362 Intensive Care Units Hospital units providing continuous surveillance and care to acutely ill patients. ICU Intensive Care Units,Intensive Care Unit,Unit, Intensive Care
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000083242 Ischemic Stroke Stroke due to BRAIN ISCHEMIA resulting in interruption or reduction of blood flow to a part of the brain. When obstruction is due to a BLOOD CLOT formed within in a cerebral blood vessel it is a thrombotic stroke. When obstruction is formed elsewhere and moved to block a cerebral blood vessel (see CEREBRAL EMBOLISM) it is referred to as embolic stroke. Wake-up stroke refers to ischemic stroke occurring during sleep while cryptogenic stroke refers to ischemic stroke of unknown origin. Acute Ischemic Stroke,Cryptogenic Embolism Stroke,Cryptogenic Ischemic Stroke,Cryptogenic Stroke,Ischaemic Stroke,Wake-up Stroke,Acute Ischemic Strokes,Cryptogenic Embolism Strokes,Cryptogenic Ischemic Strokes,Cryptogenic Strokes,Embolism Stroke, Cryptogenic,Ischaemic Strokes,Ischemic Stroke, Acute,Ischemic Stroke, Cryptogenic,Ischemic Strokes,Stroke, Acute Ischemic,Stroke, Cryptogenic,Stroke, Cryptogenic Embolism,Stroke, Cryptogenic Ischemic,Stroke, Ischaemic,Stroke, Ischemic,Stroke, Wake-up,Wake up Stroke,Wake-up Strokes
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D017052 Hospital Mortality A vital statistic measuring or recording the rate of death from any cause in hospitalized populations. In-Hospital Mortality,Mortality, Hospital,Hospital Mortalities,In Hospital Mortalities,In Hospital Mortality,Inhospital Mortalities,Inhospital Mortality,Mortalities, In-house,Mortalities, Inhospital,Mortality, In-Hospital,Mortality, Inhospital,Hospital Mortalities, In,Hospital Mortality, In,In-Hospital Mortalities,In-house Mortalities,In-house Mortality,Mortalities, Hospital,Mortalities, In Hospital,Mortalities, In house,Mortalities, In-Hospital,Mortality, In Hospital,Mortality, In-house

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