Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Outcomes of Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Liver Metastases. 2023

Omeed Moaven, and Thomas E Tavolara, and Cristian D Valenzuela, and Tan To Cheung, and Carlos U Corvera, and Charles H Cha, and John A Stauffer, and Muhammad Khalid Khan Niazi, and Metin N Gurcan, and Perry Shen
From the Division of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, Louisiana State University Health; and Louisiana State University-Louisiana Children's Medical Center Cancer Center, New Orleans, LA (Moaven).

Surgical intervention remains the cornerstone of a multidisciplinary approach in the treatment of colorectal liver metastases (CLM). Nevertheless, patient outcomes vary greatly. While predictive tools can assist decision-making and patient counseling, decades of efforts have yet to result in generating a universally adopted tool in clinical practice. An international collaborative database of CLM patients who underwent surgical therapy between 2000 and 2018 was used to select 1,004 operations for this study. Two different machine learning methods were applied to construct 2 predictive models for recurrence and death, using 128 clinicopathologic variables: gradient-boosted trees (GBTs) and logistic regression with bootstrapping (LRB) in a leave-one-out cross-validation. Median survival after resection was 47.2 months, and disease-free survival was 19.0 months, with a median follow-up of 32.0 months in the cohort. Both models had good predictive power, with GBT demonstrating a superior performance in predicting overall survival (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC] 0.773, 95% CI 0.743 to 0.801 vs LRB: AUC 0.648, 95% CI 0.614 to 0.682) and recurrence (AUC 0.635, 95% CI 0.599 to 0.669 vs LRB: AUC 0.570, 95% CI 0.535 to 0.601). Similarly, better performances were observed predicting 3- and 5-year survival, as well as 3- and 5-year recurrence, with GBT methods generating higher AUCs. Machine learning provides powerful tools to create predictive models of survival and recurrence after surgery for CLM. The effectiveness of both machine learning models varies, but on most occasions, GBT outperforms LRB. Prospective validation of these models lays the groundwork to adopt them in clinical practice.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D015179 Colorectal Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the COLON or the RECTUM or both. Risk factors for colorectal cancer include chronic ULCERATIVE COLITIS; FAMILIAL POLYPOSIS COLI; exposure to ASBESTOS; and irradiation of the CERVIX UTERI. Colorectal Cancer,Colorectal Carcinoma,Colorectal Tumors,Neoplasms, Colorectal,Cancer, Colorectal,Cancers, Colorectal,Carcinoma, Colorectal,Carcinomas, Colorectal,Colorectal Cancers,Colorectal Carcinomas,Colorectal Neoplasm,Colorectal Tumor,Neoplasm, Colorectal,Tumor, Colorectal,Tumors, Colorectal
D016015 Logistic Models Statistical models which describe the relationship between a qualitative dependent variable (that is, one which can take only certain discrete values, such as the presence or absence of a disease) and an independent variable. A common application is in epidemiology for estimating an individual's risk (probability of a disease) as a function of a given risk factor. Logistic Regression,Logit Models,Models, Logistic,Logistic Model,Logistic Regressions,Logit Model,Model, Logistic,Model, Logit,Models, Logit,Regression, Logistic,Regressions, Logistic

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