Development and validation of risk prediction models for new-onset type 2 diabetes in adults with impaired fasting glucose. 2023

Manqi Zheng, and Shouling Wu, and Shuohua Chen, and Xiaoyu Zhang, and Yingting Zuo, and Chao Tong, and Haibin Li, and Changwei Li, and Xinghua Yang, and Lijuan Wu, and Anxin Wang, and Deqiang Zheng
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.

OBJECTIVE To develop and validate sex-specific risk prediction models based on easily obtainable clinical data for predicting 5-year risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) among individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and generate practical tools for public use. METHODS The data used for model training and internal validation came from a large prospective cohort (N = 18,384). Two independent cohorts were used for external validation. A two-step approach was applied to screen variables. Coefficient-based models were constructed by multivariate Cox regression analyses, and score-based models were subsequently generated. The predictive power was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS During a median follow-up of 7.55 years, 5697 new-onset T2D cases were identified. Predictor variables included age, body mass index, waist circumference, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose, and fatty liver. The proposed models outperformed five existing models. In internal validation, the AUCs of the coefficient-based models were 0.741 (95% CI 0.723-0.760) for men and 0.762 (95% CI 0.720-0.802) for women. External validation yielded comparable prediction performance. We finally constructed a risk scoring system and a web calculator. CONCLUSIONS The risk prediction models and derived tools had well-validated performance to predict the 5-year risk of T2D in IFG adults.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D011236 Prediabetic State The time period before the development of symptomatic diabetes. For example, certain risk factors can be observed in subjects who subsequently develop INSULIN RESISTANCE as in type 2 diabetes (DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2). Prediabetes,Prediabetic States,State, Prediabetic,States, Prediabetic
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D001786 Blood Glucose Glucose in blood. Blood Sugar,Glucose, Blood,Sugar, Blood
D003924 Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 A subclass of DIABETES MELLITUS that is not INSULIN-responsive or dependent (NIDDM). It is characterized initially by INSULIN RESISTANCE and HYPERINSULINEMIA; and eventually by GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE; HYPERGLYCEMIA; and overt diabetes. Type II diabetes mellitus is no longer considered a disease exclusively found in adults. Patients seldom develop KETOSIS but often exhibit OBESITY. Diabetes Mellitus, Adult-Onset,Diabetes Mellitus, Ketosis-Resistant,Diabetes Mellitus, Maturity-Onset,Diabetes Mellitus, Non-Insulin-Dependent,Diabetes Mellitus, Slow-Onset,Diabetes Mellitus, Stable,MODY,Maturity-Onset Diabetes Mellitus,NIDDM,Diabetes Mellitus, Non Insulin Dependent,Diabetes Mellitus, Noninsulin Dependent,Diabetes Mellitus, Noninsulin-Dependent,Diabetes Mellitus, Type II,Maturity-Onset Diabetes,Noninsulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus,Type 2 Diabetes,Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus,Adult-Onset Diabetes Mellitus,Diabetes Mellitus, Adult Onset,Diabetes Mellitus, Ketosis Resistant,Diabetes Mellitus, Maturity Onset,Diabetes Mellitus, Slow Onset,Diabetes, Maturity-Onset,Diabetes, Type 2,Ketosis-Resistant Diabetes Mellitus,Maturity Onset Diabetes,Maturity Onset Diabetes Mellitus,Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus,Noninsulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus,Slow-Onset Diabetes Mellitus,Stable Diabetes Mellitus
D005215 Fasting Abstaining from FOOD. Hunger Strike,Hunger Strikes,Strike, Hunger,Strikes, Hunger
D005260 Female Females
D005947 Glucose A primary source of energy for living organisms. It is naturally occurring and is found in fruits and other parts of plants in its free state. It is used therapeutically in fluid and nutrient replacement. Dextrose,Anhydrous Dextrose,D-Glucose,Glucose Monohydrate,Glucose, (DL)-Isomer,Glucose, (alpha-D)-Isomer,Glucose, (beta-D)-Isomer,D Glucose,Dextrose, Anhydrous,Monohydrate, Glucose
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults

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