Estimation of crash type frequency accounting for misclassification in crash data. 2023

Asif Mahmud, and Vikash V Gayah, and Rajesh Paleti
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, 231 Sackett Building, University Park, PA 16802, United States. Electronic address: axm6342@psu.edu.

Crash misclassification (MC) - e.g., a crash of one type or severity being mistakenly miscategorized as another - is a relatively common problem in transportation safety. Crash frequency models for individual crash categories estimated using datasets with MC errors could result in biased parameter estimates and thus lead to ineffective countermeasure planning. This study proposes a novel methodological formulation to directly account for this MC error and incorporates it into the two most common count data models used for crash frequency prediction: Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) regression. The proposed framework introduces probabilistic MC rates among different crash types and modifies the likelihood function of the count models accordingly. The paper also demonstrates how this approach can be integrated into reformulated models that express each count model as a discrete choice model. The capability of the proposed models to estimate true parameters, given the existence of MC error, is examined via simulation analysis. Then, the proposed models are applied to empirical data to examine the presence of MC in crash data and further examine the robustness of the proposed models. Although the MC rates are found to be very low in the empirical data, the fit of proposed models are found to be better compared to the models that ignore MC error and thus likely provide more reliable parameter estimates.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000063 Accidents, Traffic Accidents on streets, roads, and highways involving drivers, passengers, pedestrians, or vehicles. Traffic accidents refer to AUTOMOBILES (passenger cars, buses, and trucks), BICYCLING, and MOTORCYCLES but not OFF-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES; RAILROADS nor snowmobiles. Traffic Collisions,Traffic Crashes,Traffic Accidents,Accident, Traffic,Collision, Traffic,Collisions, Traffic,Crashes, Traffic,Traffic Accident,Traffic Collision
D012449 Safety Freedom from exposure to danger and protection from the occurrence or risk of injury or loss. It suggests optimal precautions in the workplace, on the street, in the home, etc., and includes personal safety as well as the safety of property. Safeties
D014186 Transportation The means of moving persons, animals, goods, or materials from one place to another. Commuting
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model

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