Smoking accelerates periodontal disease and alters the subgingival microbiome. However, the relationship between smoking-associated subgingival dysbiosis and progression of periodontal disease is not well understood. Here, we sampled 233 subgingival sites longitudinally from 8 smokers and 9 non-smokers over 6-12 months, analyzing 804 subgingival plaque samples using 16 rRNA sequencing. At equal probing depths, the microbial richness and diversity of the subgingival microbiome was higher in smokers compared to non-smokers, but these differences decreased as probing depths increased. The overall subgingival microbiome of smokers differed significantly from non-smokers at equal probing depths, which was characterized by colonization of novel minority microbes and a shift in abundant members of the microbiome to resemble periodontally diseased communities enriched with pathogenic bacteria. Temporal analysis showed that microbiome in shallow sites were less stable than deeper sites, but temporal stability of the microbiome was not significantly affected by smoking status or scaling and root planing. We identified 7 taxa-Olsenella sp., Streptococcus cristatus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Streptococcus parasanguinis, Prevotella sp., Alloprevotella sp., and a Bacteroidales sp. that were significantly associated with progression of periodontal disease. Taken together, these results suggest that subgingival dysbiosis in smokers precedes clinical signs of periodontal disease, and support the hypothesis that smoking accelerates subgingival dysbiosis to facilitate periodontal disease progression.