Risk prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer development or amputation: a review of reviews. 2023

Anjum S Kaka, and Adrienne Landsteiner, and Kristine E Ensrud, and Brittany Logan, and Catherine Sowerby, and Kristen Ullman, and Patrick Yoon, and Timothy J Wilt, and Shahnaz Sultan
Section of Infectious Diseases, Minneapolis VA Affairs Health Care System, 1 Veterans Drive, Minneapolis, MN, 111F55417, USA. Anjum.Kaka@va.gov.

BACKGROUND In adults with diabetes, diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) and amputation are common and associated with significant morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE Identify tools predicting risk of DFU or amputation that are prognostically accurate and clinically feasible. METHODS We searched for systematic reviews (SRs) of tools predicting DFU or amputation published in multiple databases from initiation to January, 2023. We assessed risk of bias (ROB) and provided a narrative review of reviews describing performance characteristics (calibration and discrimination) of prognostically accurate tools. For such tools, we additionally reviewed original studies to ascertain clinical applicability and usability (variables included, score calculation, and risk categorization). RESULTS We identified 3 eligible SRs predicting DFU or amputation risk. Two recent SRs (2020 and 2021) were rated as moderate and low ROB respectively. Four risk prediction models - Boyko, Martins-Mendes (simplified), Martins-Mendes (original), and PODUS 2020 had good prognostic accuracy for predicting DFU or amputation over time horizons ranging from 1- to 5-years. PODUS 2020 predicts absolute average risk (e.g., 6% risk of DFU at 2 years) and consists of 3-binary variables with a simple, summative scoring (0-4) making it feasible for clinic use. The other 3 models categorize risk subjectively (e.g., high-risk for DFU at 3 years), include 2-7 variables, and require a calculation device. No data exist to inform rescreening intervals. Furthermore, the effectiveness of targeted interventions in decreasing incidence of DFU or amputation in response to prediction scores is unknown. CONCLUSIONS In this review of reviews, we identified 4 prognostically accurate models that predict DFU or amputation in persons with diabetes. The PODUS 2020 model, predicting absolute average DFU risk at 2 years, has the most favorable prognostic accuracy and is clinically feasible. Rescreening intervals and effectiveness of intervention based on prediction score are uncertain.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D003920 Diabetes Mellitus A heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by HYPERGLYCEMIA and GLUCOSE INTOLERANCE.
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000078202 Systematic Reviews as Topic Works about a review of primary literature in health and health policy that attempt to identify, appraise, and synthesize all the empirical evidence that meets specified eligibility criteria to answer a given research question. It's conducted using explicit methods aimed at minimizing bias in order to produce more reliable findings regarding the effects of interventions for prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation that can be used to inform decision making. Systematic Review as Topic,Umbrella Reviews as Topic,Reviews Systematic as Topic
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000671 Amputation, Surgical The surgical removal of part of, or all of, a limb or other appendage or outgrowth of the body. Amputation,Amputation, Multiple, Surgical,Multiple Amputation, Surgical,Surgical Amputation Procedures,Amputation Procedure, Surgical,Amputation Procedures, Surgical,Amputation, Surgical Multiple,Amputations,Amputations, Surgical,Amputations, Surgical Multiple,Multiple Amputations, Surgical,Procedure, Surgical Amputation,Procedures, Surgical Amputation,Surgical Amputation,Surgical Amputation Procedure,Surgical Amputations,Surgical Multiple Amputation,Surgical Multiple Amputations
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D016523 Foot Ulcer Lesion on the surface of the skin of the foot, usually accompanied by inflammation. The lesion may become infected or necrotic and is frequently associated with diabetes or leprosy. Plantar Ulcer,Foot Ulcers,Plantar Ulcers,Ulcer, Foot,Ulcer, Plantar,Ulcers, Foot,Ulcers, Plantar
D017719 Diabetic Foot Common foot problems in persons with DIABETES MELLITUS, caused by any combination of factors such as DIABETIC NEUROPATHIES; PERIPHERAL VASCULAR DISEASES; and INFECTION. With the loss of sensation and poor circulation, injuries and infections often lead to severe foot ulceration, GANGRENE and AMPUTATION, SURGICAL. Foot Ulcer, Diabetic,Diabetic Feet,Feet, Diabetic,Foot, Diabetic

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