Assessing the effectiveness of perimeter lockdowns as a response to epidemics at the urban scale. 2023

Alfonso de Miguel Arribas, and Alberto Aleta, and Yamir Moreno
Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, 50018, Zaragoza, Spain. alfonso.demiguel.arribas@gmail.com.

From September 2020 to May 2021 Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by establishing a strategy of perimeter lockdowns (PLs) that banned travels to and from areas satisfying certain epidemiological risk criteria. PLs were pursued to avoid harsher restrictions, but some studies have found that the particular implementation by Madrid authorities was rather ineffective. Based on Madrid's case, we devise a general, minimal framework to investigate the PLs effectiveness by using a data-driven metapopulation epidemiological model of a city, and explore under which circumstances the PLs could be a good NPI. The model is informed with real mobility data from Madrid to contextualize its results, but it can be generalized elsewhere. The lowest lockdown activation threshold [Formula: see text] considered (14-day cumulative incidence rate of 20 cases per every [Formula: see text] inhabitants) shows a prevalence reduction [Formula: see text] with respect to the scenario [Formula: see text], more akin to the case of Madrid, and assuming no further mitigation. Only the combination of [Formula: see text] and mobility reduction [Formula: see text] can avoid PLs for more than [Formula: see text] of the system. The combination of low [Formula: see text] and strong local transmissibility reduction is key to minimize the impact, but the latter is harder to achieve given that we assume a situation with highly mitigated transmission, resembling the one observed during the second wave of COVID-19 in Madrid. Thus, we conclude that a generalized lockdown is hard to avoid under any realistic setting if only this strategy is applied.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003140 Communicable Disease Control Programs of surveillance designed to prevent the transmission of disease by any means from person to person or from animal to man. Flatten the Curve of Epidemic,Flattening the Curve, Communicable Disease Control,Parasite Control,Control, Communicable Disease,Control, Parasite
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D013030 Spain Country located between France on the northeast and Portugal on the west and bordered by the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. The capital is Madrid. Balearic Islands,Canary Islands
D058872 Epidemics Sudden outbreaks of a disease in a country or region not previously recognized in that area, or a rapid increase in the number of new cases of a previous existing endemic disease. Epidemics can also refer to outbreaks of disease in animal or plant populations.

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