Mapping current and future thermal limits to suitability for malaria transmission by the invasive mosquito Anopheles stephensi. 2023

Sadie J Ryan, and Catherine A Lippi, and Oswaldo C Villena, and Aspen Singh, and Courtney C Murdock, and Leah R Johnson
Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA. sjryan@ufl.edu.

BACKGROUND Anopheles stephensi is a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics of An. stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk. METHODS In this paper, global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission by An. stephensi were created, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations. RESULTS Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach revealed that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability with An. stephensi presence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission potential. CONCLUSIONS Understanding the potential suitability for An. stephensi transmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008288 Malaria A protozoan disease caused in humans by four species of the PLASMODIUM genus: PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PLASMODIUM VIVAX; PLASMODIUM OVALE; and PLASMODIUM MALARIAE; and transmitted by the bite of an infected female mosquito of the genus ANOPHELES. Malaria is endemic in parts of Asia, Africa, Central and South America, Oceania, and certain Caribbean islands. It is characterized by extreme exhaustion associated with paroxysms of high FEVER; SWEATING; shaking CHILLS; and ANEMIA. Malaria in ANIMALS is caused by other species of plasmodia. Marsh Fever,Plasmodium Infections,Remittent Fever,Infections, Plasmodium,Paludism,Fever, Marsh,Fever, Remittent,Infection, Plasmodium,Plasmodium Infection
D010963 Plasmodium falciparum A species of protozoa that is the causal agent of falciparum malaria (MALARIA, FALCIPARUM). It is most prevalent in the tropics and subtropics. Plasmodium falciparums,falciparums, Plasmodium
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000072138 Mosquito Vectors Mosquitoes (members of the family CULICIDAE) that transmit pathogens or their intermediate forms from one host to another. Mosquito Vector,Vector, Mosquito,Vectors, Mosquito
D000349 Africa The continent south of EUROPE, east of the ATLANTIC OCEAN and west of the INDIAN OCEAN.
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D000852 Anopheles A genus of mosquitoes (CULICIDAE) that are known vectors of MALARIA. Anopheles gambiae
D016778 Malaria, Falciparum Malaria caused by PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM. This is the severest form of malaria and is associated with the highest levels of parasites in the blood. This disease is characterized by irregularly recurring febrile paroxysms that in extreme cases occur with acute cerebral, renal, or gastrointestinal manifestations. Plasmodium falciparum Malaria,Malaria, Plasmodium falciparum
D016780 Malaria, Vivax Malaria caused by PLASMODIUM VIVAX. This form of malaria is less severe than MALARIA, FALCIPARUM, but there is a higher probability for relapses to occur. Febrile paroxysms often occur every other day. Plasmodium vivax Malaria,Malaria, Plasmodium vivax,Vivax Malaria

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