The importance of quarantine: modelling the COVID-19 testing process. 2023

Wanxiao Xu, and Hongying Shu, and Lin Wang, and Xiang-Sheng Wang, and James Watmough
School of Science, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou, 310023, China.

We incorporate the disease state and testing state into the formulation of a COVID-19 epidemic model. For this model, the basic reproduction number is identified and its dependence on model parameters related to the testing process and isolation efficacy is discussed. The relations between the basic reproduction number, the final epidemic and peak sizes, and the model parameters are further explored numerically. We find that fast test reporting does not always benefit the control of the COVID-19 epidemic if good quarantine while awaiting test results is implemented. Moreover, the final epidemic and peak sizes do not always increase along with the basic reproduction number. Under some circumstances, lowering the basic reproduction number increases the final epidemic and peak sizes. Our findings suggest that properly implementing isolation for individuals who are waiting for their testing results would lower the basic reproduction number as well as the final epidemic and peak sizes.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011790 Quarantine Limited freedom of movement of individuals to reduce the risk of spread of communicable disease by those who have been exposed to infectious or communicable disease in order to prevent its spread; a period of detention of vessels, vehicles, or travelers coming from infected or suspected places; and detention or isolation on account of suspected contagion. It includes government regulations on travel restrictions, border security measures to mitigate spread of a contagion and the detention of animals at frontiers or ports of entrance for the prevention of infectious disease. (From Black's Veterinary Dictionary, 17th ed) Border Closing, Health-Related,Border Travel Restrictions, Health-Related,Cordon Sanitaire,Health-Related Border Travel Restrictions,Health-Related Travel Restriction,Health-Related Travel Restrictions,Lockdown, Health,Self-Quarantine,Stay at Home Orders,Travel Restriction, Health,Travel Restrictions, Health-Related,Border Closing, Health Related,Border Closings, Health-Related,Border Travel Restrictions, Health Related,Health Lockdown,Health Lockdowns,Health Related Border Travel Restrictions,Health Related Travel Restriction,Health Related Travel Restrictions,Health Travel Restriction,Health Travel Restrictions,Health-Related Border Closing,Health-Related Border Closings,Quarantines,Self Quarantine,Travel Restriction, Health-Related,Travel Restrictions, Health,Travel Restrictions, Health Related
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D000086742 COVID-19 Testing Diagnosis of COVID-19 by assaying bodily fluids or tissues for the presence of COVID-19 antibodies, SARS-COV-2 antigens or the VIRAL RNA of SARS-COV-2. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease Testing,2019 Novel Coronavirus Testing,2019-nCoV Disease Testing,2019-nCoV Infection Testing,2019-nCoV Testing,COVID-19 Diagnostic Testing,COVID-19 Virus Testing,COVID19 Testing,COVID19 Virus Testing,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Testing,Coronavirus Disease-19 Testing,SARS Coronavirus 2 Testing,SARS-CoV-2 Testing,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing,2019 nCoV Disease Testing,2019 nCoV Infection Testing,2019 nCoV Testing,2019-nCoV Disease Testings,2019-nCoV Infection Testings,2019-nCoV Testings,COVID 19 Diagnostic Testing,COVID 19 Testing,COVID 19 Virus Testing,COVID-19 Diagnostic Testings,COVID-19 Testings,COVID-19 Virus Testings,COVID19 Testings,COVID19 Virus Testings,Coronavirus Disease 19 Testing,Coronavirus Disease-19 Testings,Diagnostic Testing, COVID-19,Disease Testing, 2019-nCoV,Infection Testing, 2019-nCoV,SARS CoV 2 Testing,SARS-CoV-2 Testings,Testing, 2019-nCoV,Testing, 2019-nCoV Disease,Testing, 2019-nCoV Infection,Testing, COVID-19,Testing, COVID-19 Virus,Testing, COVID19,Testing, COVID19 Virus,Testing, Coronavirus Disease-19,Testing, SARS-CoV-2,Virus Testing, COVID-19,Virus Testing, COVID19
D050936 Basic Reproduction Number The expected number of new cases of an infection caused by an infected individual, amongst susceptible contacts only. Basic Reproductive Number,Basic Reproductive Ratio,Effective Reproduction Number,Effective Reproductive Number,R0 Basic Reproduction Number,RE Effective Reproduction Number,Re Effective Reproductive Number,Transmissibility Measures,Basic Reproduction Ratio,Basic Reproductive Rate,Basic Reproductive Numbers,Basic Reproductive Rates,Basic Reproductive Ratios,Effective Reproduction Numbers,Effective Reproductive Numbers,Rate, Basic Reproductive,Reproduction Number, Basic,Reproduction Number, Effective,Reproduction Ratio, Basic,Reproductive Number, Basic,Reproductive Number, Effective,Reproductive Rate, Basic,Reproductive Rates, Basic,Reproductive Ratio, Basic,Transmissibility Measure
D058872 Epidemics Sudden outbreaks of a disease in a country or region not previously recognized in that area, or a rapid increase in the number of new cases of a previous existing endemic disease. Epidemics can also refer to outbreaks of disease in animal or plant populations.

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