Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for Older Transplant Candidates: A New Microsimulation Model for Determining Risks and Benefits. 2023

Matthew B Kaufmann, and Jane C Tan, and Glenn M Chertow, and Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert
Stanford Health Policy, Department of Health Policy, School of Medicine and Center for Health Policy, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Under the current US kidney allocation system, older candidates receive a disproportionately small share of deceased donor kidneys despite a reserve of potentially usable kidneys that could shorten their wait times. To consider potential health gains from increasing access to kidneys for these candidates, we developed and calibrated a microsimulation model of the transplantation process and long-term outcomes for older deceased donor kidney transplant candidates. We estimated risk equations for transplant outcomes using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR), which contains data on all US transplants (2010-2019). A microsimulation model combined these equations to account for competing events. We calibrated the model to key transplant outcomes and used acceptance sampling, retaining the best-fitting 100 parameter sets. We then examined life expectancy gains from allocating kidneys even of lower quality across patient subgroups defined by age and designated race/ethnicity. The best-fitting 100 parameter sets (among 4,000,000 sampled) enabled our model to closely match key transplant outcomes. The model demonstrated clear survival benefits for those who receive a deceased donor kidney, even a lower quality one, compared with remaining on the waitlist where there is a risk of removal. The expected gain in survival from receiving a lower quality donor kidney was consistent gains across age and race/ethnic subgroups. Limited available data on socioeconomic factors. Our microsimulation model accurately replicates a range of key kidney transplant outcomes among older candidates and demonstrates that older candidates may derive substantial benefits from transplantation with lower quality kidneys. This model can be used to evaluate policies that have been proposed to address concerns that the current system disincentivizes deceased donor transplants for older patients. The microsimulation model was consistent with the data after calibration and accurately simulated the transplantation process for older deceased donor kidney transplant candidates.There are clear survival benefits for older transplant candidates who receive deceased donor kidneys, even lower quality ones, compared with remaining on the waitlist.This model can be used to evaluate policies aimed at increasing transplantation among older candidates.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000367 Age Factors Age as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or the effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from AGING, a physiological process, and TIME FACTORS which refers only to the passage of time. Age Reporting,Age Factor,Factor, Age,Factors, Age
D014019 Tissue Donors Individuals supplying living tissue, organs, cells, blood or blood components for transfer or transplantation to histocompatible recipients. Organ Donors,Donors,Ovum Donors,Semen Donors,Transplant Donors,Donor,Donor, Organ,Donor, Ovum,Donor, Semen,Donor, Tissue,Donor, Transplant,Donors, Organ,Donors, Ovum,Donors, Semen,Donors, Tissue,Donors, Transplant,Organ Donor,Ovum Donor,Semen Donor,Tissue Donor,Transplant Donor
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D016030 Kidney Transplantation The transference of a kidney from one human or animal to another. Grafting, Kidney,Renal Transplantation,Transplantation, Kidney,Transplantation, Renal,Kidney Grafting,Kidney Transplantations,Renal Transplantations,Transplantations, Kidney,Transplantations, Renal
D016896 Treatment Outcome Evaluation undertaken to assess the results or consequences of management and procedures used in combating disease in order to determine the efficacy, effectiveness, safety, and practicability of these interventions in individual cases or series. Rehabilitation Outcome,Treatment Effectiveness,Clinical Effectiveness,Clinical Efficacy,Patient-Relevant Outcome,Treatment Efficacy,Effectiveness, Clinical,Effectiveness, Treatment,Efficacy, Clinical,Efficacy, Treatment,Outcome, Patient-Relevant,Outcome, Rehabilitation,Outcome, Treatment,Outcomes, Patient-Relevant,Patient Relevant Outcome,Patient-Relevant Outcomes
D018570 Risk Assessment The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988) Assessment, Risk,Benefit-Risk Assessment,Risk Analysis,Risk-Benefit Assessment,Health Risk Assessment,Risks and Benefits,Analysis, Risk,Assessment, Benefit-Risk,Assessment, Health Risk,Assessment, Risk-Benefit,Benefit Risk Assessment,Benefit-Risk Assessments,Benefits and Risks,Health Risk Assessments,Risk Analyses,Risk Assessment, Health,Risk Assessments,Risk Benefit Assessment,Risk-Benefit Assessments
D066027 Transplant Recipients Individuals receiving tissues or organs transferred from another individual of the same or different species, or from within the same individual. Recipient, Transplant,Recipients, Transplant,Transplant Recipient

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