Development of a Machine Learning Model to Identify Colorectal Cancer Stage in Medicare Claims. 2023

Caitlin B Finn, and James E Sharpe, and Jason K Tong, and Elinore J Kaufman, and Heather Wachtel, and Cary B Aarons, and Gary E Weissman, and Rachel R Kelz
Department of Surgery, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, NY.

Staging information is essential for colorectal cancer research. Medicare claims are an important source of population-level data but currently lack oncologic stage. We aimed to develop a claims-based model to identify stage at diagnosis in patients with colorectal cancer. We included patients age 66 years or older with colorectal cancer in the SEER-Medicare registry. Using patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2016, we developed models (multinomial logistic regression, elastic net regression, and random forest) to classify patients into stage I-II, III, or IV on the basis of demographics, diagnoses, and treatment utilization identified in Medicare claims. Models developed in a training cohort (2014-2016) were applied to a testing cohort (2017), and performance was evaluated using cancer stage listed in the SEER registry as the reference standard. The cohort of patients with 30,543 colorectal cancer included 14,935 (48.9%) patients with stage I-II, 9,203 (30.1%) with stage III, and 6,405 (21%) with stage IV disease. A claims-based model using elastic net regression had a scaled Brier score (SBS) of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.43 to 0.46). Performance was strongest for classifying stage IV (SBS, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.64; sensitivity, 93%; 95% CI, 91 to 94) followed by stage I-II (SBS, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.47; sensitivity, 86%; 95% CI, 85 to 76) and stage III (SBS, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.33; sensitivity, 62%; 95% CI, 61 to 64). Machine learning models effectively classified colorectal cancer stage using Medicare claims. These models extend the ability of claims-based research to risk-adjust and stratify by stage.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009367 Neoplasm Staging Methods which attempt to express in replicable terms the extent of the neoplasm in the patient. Cancer Staging,Staging, Neoplasm,Tumor Staging,TNM Classification,TNM Staging,TNM Staging System,Classification, TNM,Classifications, TNM,Staging System, TNM,Staging Systems, TNM,Staging, Cancer,Staging, TNM,Staging, Tumor,System, TNM Staging,Systems, TNM Staging,TNM Classifications,TNM Staging Systems
D006278 Medicare Federal program, created by Public Law 89-97, Title XVIII-Health Insurance for the Aged, a 1965 amendment to the Social Security Act, that provides health insurance benefits to persons over the age of 65 and others eligible for Social Security benefits. It consists of two separate but coordinated programs: hospital insurance (MEDICARE PART A) and supplementary medical insurance (MEDICARE PART B). (Hospital Administration Terminology, AHA, 2d ed and A Discursive Dictionary of Health Care, US House of Representatives, 1976) Health Insurance for Aged and Disabled, Title 18,Insurance, Health, for Aged and Disabled,Health Insurance for Aged, Disabled, Title 18,Health Insurance for Aged, Title 18
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D015179 Colorectal Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the COLON or the RECTUM or both. Risk factors for colorectal cancer include chronic ULCERATIVE COLITIS; FAMILIAL POLYPOSIS COLI; exposure to ASBESTOS; and irradiation of the CERVIX UTERI. Colorectal Cancer,Colorectal Carcinoma,Colorectal Tumors,Neoplasms, Colorectal,Cancer, Colorectal,Cancers, Colorectal,Carcinoma, Colorectal,Carcinomas, Colorectal,Colorectal Cancers,Colorectal Carcinomas,Colorectal Neoplasm,Colorectal Tumor,Neoplasm, Colorectal,Tumor, Colorectal,Tumors, Colorectal
D018426 SEER Program A cancer registry mandated under the National Cancer Act of 1971 to operate and maintain a population-based cancer reporting system, reporting periodically estimates of cancer incidence and mortality in the United States. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program is a continuing project of the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health. Among its goals, in addition to assembling and reporting cancer statistics, are the monitoring of annual cancer incident trends and the promoting of studies designed to identify factors amenable to cancer control interventions. (From National Cancer Institute, NIH Publication No. 91-3074, October 1990) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program,SEER Program (National Cancer Institute (U.S.)),Program, SEER

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