Development of a prediction model for neonatal hypoglycemia risk factors: a retrospective study. 2023

Tian Wu, and Yi-Yan Huang, and Wei Song, and Sharon R Redding, and Wei-Peng Huang, and Yan-Qiong Ouyang
School of Nursing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China.

It's challenging for healthcare workers to detect neonatal hypoglycemia due to its rapid progression and lack of aura symptoms. This may lead to brain function impairment for the newborn, placing a significant care burden on the family and creating an economic burden for society. Tools for early diagnosis of neonatal hypoglycemia are lacking. This study aimed to identify newborns at high risk of developing neonatal hypoglycemia early by developing a risk prediction model. Using a retrospective design, pairs (470) of women and their newborns in a tertiary hospital from December 2021 to September 2022 were included in this study. Socio-demographic data and clinical data of mothers and newborns were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to screen optimized factors. A neonatal hypoglycemia risk nomogram was constructed using R software, and the calibration curve and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) was utilized to evaluate model performance. Factors integrated into the prediction risk nomogram were maternal age (odds ratio [OR] =1.10, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.17), fasting period (OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12), ritodrine use (OR=2.00, 95% CI: 1.05, 3.88), gestational diabetes mellitus (OR=2.13, 95% CI: 1.30, 3.50), gestational week (OR=0.80, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.96), fetal distress (OR=1.76, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.79) and neonatal body mass index (OR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.24, 1.84). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75, 0.82), specificity was 0.82, and sensitivity was 0.62. The prediction model of this study demonstrated good predictive performance. The development of the model identifies advancing maternal age, an extended fasting period before delivery, ritodrine use, gestational diabetes mellitus diagnosis, fetal distress diagnosis and an increase in neonatal body mass index increase the probability of developing neonatal hypoglycemia, while an extended gestational week reduces the probability of developing neonatal hypoglycemia.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007003 Hypoglycemia A syndrome of abnormally low BLOOD GLUCOSE level. Clinical hypoglycemia has diverse etiologies. Severe hypoglycemia eventually lead to glucose deprivation of the CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM resulting in HUNGER; SWEATING; PARESTHESIA; impaired mental function; SEIZURES; COMA; and even DEATH. Fasting Hypoglycemia,Postabsorptive Hypoglycemia,Postprandial Hypoglycemia,Reactive Hypoglycemia,Hypoglycemia, Fasting,Hypoglycemia, Postabsorptive,Hypoglycemia, Postprandial,Hypoglycemia, Reactive
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D007232 Infant, Newborn, Diseases Diseases of newborn infants present at birth (congenital) or developing within the first month of birth. It does not include hereditary diseases not manifesting at birth or within the first 30 days of life nor does it include inborn errors of metabolism. Both HEREDITARY DISEASES and METABOLISM, INBORN ERRORS are available as general concepts. Neonatal Diseases,Disease, Neonatal,Diseases, Neonatal,Neonatal Disease
D008423 Maternal Age The age of the mother in PREGNANCY. Age, Maternal,Ages, Maternal,Maternal Ages
D011247 Pregnancy The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH. Gestation,Pregnancies
D005260 Female Females
D005315 Fetal Diseases Pathophysiological conditions of the FETUS in the UTERUS. Some fetal diseases may be treated with FETAL THERAPIES. Embryopathies,Disease, Fetal,Diseases, Fetal,Embryopathy,Fetal Disease
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D012312 Ritodrine An adrenergic beta-2 agonist used to control PREMATURE LABOR. DU-21220,Pre-Par,Ritodrine Hydrochloride,Yutopar,DU 21220,DU21220,Hydrochloride, Ritodrine,Pre Par,PrePar

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