The trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions over 25 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. 2024

Yi Ren, and Zengwu Wang, and Qingjun Wang
Department of Radiology, Sixth Medical Center of People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital, Beijing, China.

BACKGROUND High blood pressure is a key pathogenetic factor that contributes to the deterioration of kidney function. However, the incidence trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease (CKD) has rarely been studied; therefore, we aimed to analyze the global, regional, and national patterns, temporal trends as well as burden of hypertension-related CKD. METHODS We extracted data on hypertension-related CKD from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, including the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) and further described according to year, location, sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the variation in incidence, DALYs, and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model framework to analyze the underlying trends in prevalence by age, period, and birth cohort. Nordpred APC analysis was performed to predict the future morbidity and mortality of hypertension-related CKD. RESULTS In 2019, a total of over 1.57 million new hypertension-related CKD cases were reported worldwide, a 161.97% increase from 1990. Compared to 1990, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) increased in all 21 regions in 2019. In all countries and territories except Iceland, the EAPC in ASIR and the lower boundary of its 95% confidence interval (CI) were higher than 0. ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were not identical among countries with different SDI regions in 2019; additionally, ASIR and ASMR were significantly different among sexes in all SDI regions in 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality counts globally continue to increase to 2044, and there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women. CONCLUSIONS Between 1990 and 2019, the ASIR of hypertension-related CKD demonstrated an ascending trend, and according to our projections, it would remain on the rise for the next 25 years. With remarkable global population growth, aging, and an increasing number of patients with hypertension, the burden of disease caused by hypertension-related CKD continues to increase.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006973 Hypertension Persistently high systemic arterial BLOOD PRESSURE. Based on multiple readings (BLOOD PRESSURE DETERMINATION), hypertension is currently defined as when SYSTOLIC PRESSURE is consistently greater than 140 mm Hg or when DIASTOLIC PRESSURE is consistently 90 mm Hg or more. Blood Pressure, High,Blood Pressures, High,High Blood Pressure,High Blood Pressures
D006977 Hypertension, Renal Persistent high BLOOD PRESSURE due to KIDNEY DISEASES, such as those involving the renal parenchyma, the renal vasculature, or tumors that secrete RENIN. Hypertensions, Renal,Renal Hypertension,Renal Hypertensions
D008297 Male Males
D009393 Nephritis Inflammation of any part of the KIDNEY. Nephritides
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000071219 Global Burden of Disease Use of various metrics to measure death and loss of health due to diseases, injuries and RISK FACTORS for all regions of the world. Global Disease Burden,Disease Burden, Global,Disease Global Burdens,Global Disease Burdens
D014943 Global Health A multi- and interdisciplinary field concerned with improving health and achieving equity in health for all people. It transcends national boundaries, promotes cooperation and collaboration within and beyond health science fields, and combines population-based disease prevention with individually-based patient care. International Health Problems,World Health,International Health,Worldwide Health,Health Problem, International,Health Problems, International,Health, Global,Health, International,Health, World,Health, Worldwide,Healths, International,International Health Problem,International Healths,Problem, International Health,Problems, International Health
D015994 Incidence The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time. Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates
D017127 Glycation End Products, Advanced A heterogeneous group of compounds derived from rearrangements, oxidation, and cross-linking reactions that follow from non-enzymatic glycation of amino groups in PROTEINS; LIPIDS; or NUCLEIC ACIDS. Their accumulation in vivo accelerates under hyperglycemic, oxidative, or inflammatory conditions. Heat also accelerates the formation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) such seen with the browning of food during cooking. Advanced Glycation End Product,Advanced Glycation Endproduct,Advanced Maillard Reaction End Product,Glycated Lipids,Glycotoxins,Maillard Product,Maillard Reaction End Product,Maillard Reaction Product,Advanced Glycation End Products,Advanced Glycation Endproducts,Advanced Maillard Reaction End Products,Glycation Endproducts, Advanced,Maillard Products,Maillard Reaction End Products,Maillard Reaction Products,Glycation Endproduct, Advanced,Lipids, Glycated,Product, Maillard Reaction,Products, Maillard,Products, Maillard Reaction,Reaction Products, Maillard

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