Development and validation of a prediction model for evaluating extubation readiness in preterm infants. 2023

Wongeun Song, and Young Hwa Jung, and Jihoon Cho, and Hyunyoung Baek, and Chang Won Choi, and Sooyoung Yoo
Office of eHealth Research and Businesses, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Republic of Korea; Department of Health Science and Technology, Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Successful early extubation has advantages not only in terms of short-term respiratory morbidities and survival but also in terms of long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in preterm infants. However, no consensus exists regarding the optimal protocol or guidelines for extubation readiness in preterm infants. Therefore, the decision to extubate preterm infants was almost entirely at the attending physician's discretion. We identified robust and quantitative predictors of success or failure of the first planned extubation attempt before 36 weeks of post-menstrual age in preterm infants (<32 weeks gestational age) and developed a prediction model for evaluating extubation readiness using these predictors. Extubation success was defined as the absence of reintubation within 72 h after extubation. This observational cohort study used data from preterm infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Seoul National University Bundang Hospital in South Korea between July 2003 and June 2019 to identify predictors and develop and test a predictive model for extubation readiness. Data from preterm infants included in the Medical Informative Medicine for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database between 2001 and 2008 were used for external validation. From a machine learning model using predictors such as demographics, periodic vital signs, ventilator settings, and respiratory indices, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and average precision of our model were 0.805 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.802-0.809) and 0.917, respectively in the internal validation and 0.715 (95% CI, 0.713-0.717) and 0.838, respectively in the external validation. Our prediction model (NExt-Predictor) demonstrated high performance in assessing extubation readiness in both internal and external validations.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007223 Infant A child between 1 and 23 months of age. Infants
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D007234 Infant, Premature A human infant born before 37 weeks of GESTATION. Neonatal Prematurity,Premature Infants,Preterm Infants,Infant, Preterm,Infants, Premature,Infants, Preterm,Premature Infant,Prematurity, Neonatal,Preterm Infant
D007363 Intensive Care Units, Neonatal Hospital units providing continuing surveillance and care to acutely ill newborn infants. Neonatal Intensive Care Unit,Neonatal Intensive Care Units,Newborn Intensive Care Unit,Newborn Intensive Care Units,ICU, Neonatal,Neonatal ICU,Newborn ICU,Newborn Intensive Care Units (NICU),ICU, Newborn,ICUs, Neonatal,ICUs, Newborn,Neonatal ICUs,Newborn ICUs
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D015331 Cohort Studies Studies in which subsets of a defined population are identified. These groups may or may not be exposed to factors hypothesized to influence the probability of the occurrence of a particular disease or other outcome. Cohorts are defined populations which, as a whole, are followed in an attempt to determine distinguishing subgroup characteristics. Birth Cohort Studies,Birth Cohort Study,Closed Cohort Studies,Cohort Analysis,Concurrent Studies,Historical Cohort Studies,Incidence Studies,Analysis, Cohort,Cohort Studies, Closed,Cohort Studies, Historical,Studies, Closed Cohort,Studies, Concurrent,Studies, Historical Cohort,Analyses, Cohort,Closed Cohort Study,Cohort Analyses,Cohort Studies, Birth,Cohort Study,Cohort Study, Birth,Cohort Study, Closed,Cohort Study, Historical,Concurrent Study,Historical Cohort Study,Incidence Study,Studies, Birth Cohort,Studies, Cohort,Studies, Incidence,Study, Birth Cohort,Study, Closed Cohort,Study, Cohort,Study, Concurrent,Study, Historical Cohort,Study, Incidence
D055986 Vital Signs The signs of life that may be monitored or measured, namely pulse rate, respiratory rate, body temperature, and blood pressure. Sign, Vital,Signs, Vital,Vital Sign
D060666 Airway Extubation Removal of an endotracheal tube from the patient. Endotracheal Extubation,Extubation, Intratracheal,Tracheal Extubation,Airway Extubations,Endotracheal Extubations,Extubation, Airway,Extubation, Endotracheal,Extubation, Tracheal,Extubations, Airway,Extubations, Endotracheal,Extubations, Intratracheal,Extubations, Tracheal,Intratracheal Extubation,Intratracheal Extubations,Tracheal Extubations

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