Machine learning based prediction of recurrence after curative resection for rectal cancer. 2023

Youngbae Jeon, and Young-Jae Kim, and Jisoo Jeon, and Kug-Hyun Nam, and Tae-Sik Hwang, and Kwang-Gi Kim, and Jeong-Heum Baek
Department of Surgery, Division of Colon and Rectal Surgery, Gil Medical Center, Gachon University College of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea.

OBJECTIVE Patients with rectal cancer without distant metastases are typically treated with radical surgery. Post curative resection, several factors can affect tumor recurrence. This study aimed to analyze factors related to rectal cancer recurrence after curative resection using different machine learning techniques. METHODS Consecutive patients who underwent curative surgery for rectal cancer between 2004 and 2018 at Gil Medical Center were included. Patients with stage IV disease, colon cancer, anal cancer, other recurrent cancer, emergency surgery, or hereditary malignancies were excluded from the study. The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique with Tomek link (SMOTETomek) technique was used to compensate for data imbalance between recurrent and no-recurrent groups. Four machine learning methods, logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were used to identify significant factors. To overfit and improve the model performance, feature importance was calculated using the permutation importance technique. RESULTS A total of 3320 patients were included in the study. After exclusion, the total sample size of the study was 961 patients. The median follow-up period was 60.8 months (range:1.2-192.4). The recurrence rate during follow-up was 13.2% (n = 127). After applying the SMOTETomek method, the number of patients in both groups, recurrent and non-recurrent group were equalized to 667 patients. After analyzing for 16 variables, the top eight ranked variables {pathologic Tumor stage (pT), sex, concurrent chemoradiotherapy, pathologic Node stage (pN), age, postoperative chemotherapy, pathologic Tumor-Node-Metastasis stage (pTNM), and perineural invasion} were selected based on the order of permutational importance. The highest area under the curve (AUC) was for the SVM method (0.831). The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were found to be 0.692, 0.814, and 0.798, respectively. The lowest AUC was obtained for the XGBoost method (0.804), with a sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 0.308, 0.928, and 0.845, respectively. The variable with highest importance was pT as assessed through SVM, RF, and XGBoost (0.06, 0.12, and 0.13, respectively), whereas pTNM had the highest importance when assessed by LR (0.05). CONCLUSIONS In the current study, SVM showed the best AUC, and the most influential factor across all machine learning methods except LR was found to be pT. The rectal cancer patients who have a high pT stage during postoperative follow-up are need to be more close surveillance.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009364 Neoplasm Recurrence, Local The local recurrence of a neoplasm following treatment. It arises from microscopic cells of the original neoplasm that have escaped therapeutic intervention and later become clinically visible at the original site. Local Neoplasm Recurrence,Local Neoplasm Recurrences,Locoregional Neoplasm Recurrence,Neoplasm Recurrence, Locoregional,Neoplasm Recurrences, Local,Recurrence, Local Neoplasm,Recurrence, Locoregional Neoplasm,Recurrences, Local Neoplasm,Locoregional Neoplasm Recurrences,Neoplasm Recurrences, Locoregional,Recurrences, Locoregional Neoplasm
D012004 Rectal Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the RECTUM. Cancer of Rectum,Rectal Cancer,Rectal Tumors,Cancer of the Rectum,Neoplasms, Rectal,Rectum Cancer,Rectum Neoplasms,Cancer, Rectal,Cancer, Rectum,Neoplasm, Rectal,Neoplasm, Rectum,Rectal Cancers,Rectal Neoplasm,Rectal Tumor,Rectum Cancers,Rectum Neoplasm,Tumor, Rectal
D012007 Rectum The distal segment of the LARGE INTESTINE, between the SIGMOID COLON and the ANAL CANAL. Rectums
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000069550 Machine Learning A type of ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE that enable COMPUTERS to independently initiate and execute LEARNING when exposed to new data. Transfer Learning,Learning, Machine,Learning, Transfer
D059248 Chemoradiotherapy Treatment that combines chemotherapy with radiotherapy. Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy,Concomitant Chemoradiotherapy,Concomitant Radiochemotherapy,Concurrent Radiochemotherapy,Radiochemotherapy,Synchronous Chemoradiotherapy,Chemoradiotherapies,Chemoradiotherapies, Concomitant,Chemoradiotherapies, Concurrent,Chemoradiotherapies, Synchronous,Chemoradiotherapy, Concomitant,Chemoradiotherapy, Concurrent,Chemoradiotherapy, Synchronous,Concomitant Chemoradiotherapies,Concomitant Radiochemotherapies,Concurrent Chemoradiotherapies,Concurrent Radiochemotherapies,Radiochemotherapies,Radiochemotherapies, Concomitant,Radiochemotherapies, Concurrent,Radiochemotherapy, Concomitant,Radiochemotherapy, Concurrent,Synchronous Chemoradiotherapies

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