Non-targeted effects and space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station and lunar missions. 2024

Francis A Cucinotta
Univerity of Nevada Las Vegas, Las Vegas, NV, 89154, United States of America. Electronic address: francis.cucinotta@unlv.edu.

Future space travel to the earth's moon or the planet Mars will likely lead to the selection of experienced International Space Station (ISS) or lunar crew persons for subsequent lunar or mars missions. Major concerns for space travel are galactic cosmic ray (GCR) risks of cancer and circulatory diseases. However large uncertainties in risk prediction occur due to the quantitative and qualitative differences in heavy ion microscopic energy deposition leading to differences in biological effects compared to low LET radiation. In addition, there are sparse radiobiology data and absence of epidemiology data for heavy ions and other high LET radiation. Non-targeted effects (NTEs) are found in radiobiology studies to increase the biological effectiveness of high LET radiation at low dose for cancer related endpoints. In this paper the most recent version of the NASA Space Cancer Risk model (NSCR-2022) is used to predict mission risks while considering NTEs in solid cancer risk predictions. I discuss predictions of space radiation risks of cancer and circulatory disease mortality for US Whites and US Asian-Pacific Islander (API) populations for 6-month ISS, 80-day lunar missions, and combined ISS-lunar mission. Model predictions suggest NTE increase cancer risks by about ∼2.3 fold over a model that ignores NTEs. US API are predicted to have a lower cancer risks of about 30% compared to US Whites. Cancer risks are slightly less than additive for multiple missions, which is due to the decease of risk with age of exposure and the increased competition with background risks as radiation risks increase. The inclusion of circulatory risks increases mortality estimates about 25% and 37% for females and males, respectively in the model ignoring NTEs, and 20% and 30% when NTEs are assumed to modify solid cancer risk. The predictions made here for combined ISS and lunar missions suggest risks are within risk limit recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) for such missions.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D009381 Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced Tumors, cancer or other neoplasms produced by exposure to ionizing or non-ionizing radiation. Radiation-Induced Cancer,Cancer, Radiation-Induced,Radiation-Induced Neoplasms,Cancer, Radiation Induced,Cancers, Radiation-Induced,Neoplasm, Radiation-Induced,Neoplasms, Radiation Induced,Radiation Induced Cancer,Radiation Induced Neoplasms,Radiation-Induced Cancers,Radiation-Induced Neoplasm
D011829 Radiation Dosage The amount of radiation energy that is deposited in a unit mass of material, such as tissues of plants or animal. In RADIOTHERAPY, radiation dosage is expressed in gray units (Gy). In RADIOLOGIC HEALTH, the dosage is expressed by the product of absorbed dose (Gy) and quality factor (a function of linear energy transfer), and is called radiation dose equivalent in sievert units (Sv). Sievert Units,Dosage, Radiation,Gray Units,Gy Radiation,Sv Radiation Dose Equivalent,Dosages, Radiation,Radiation Dosages,Units, Gray,Units, Sievert
D003359 Cosmic Radiation High-energy radiation or particles from extraterrestrial space that strike the earth, its atmosphere, or spacecraft and may create secondary radiation as a result of collisions with the atmosphere or spacecraft. HZE Particles,Radiation, Cosmic,Cosmic Radiations,HZE Particle,Particle, HZE,Particles, HZE,Radiations, Cosmic
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D013026 Space Flight Travel beyond the earth's atmosphere. Space Exploration,Space Travel,Spaceflight,Exploration, Space,Explorations, Space,Flight, Space,Flights, Space,Space Explorations,Space Flights,Space Travels,Spaceflights,Travel, Space,Travels, Space
D016081 Moon The natural satellite of the planet Earth. It includes the lunar cycles or phases, the lunar month, lunar landscapes, geography, and soil. Lunar Cycle,Lunar Phases,Moon Cycle,Moon Phases,Cycle, Lunar,Cycle, Moon,Cycles, Lunar,Cycles, Moon,Lunar Cycles,Lunar Phase,Moon Cycles,Moon Phase,Moons,Phase, Lunar,Phase, Moon,Phases, Lunar,Phases, Moon
D018480 Astronauts Members of spacecraft crew including those who travel in space, and those in training for space flight. Cosmonauts,Astronaut,Cosmonaut

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