Phonation onset is characterized by the unstable growth of vocal fold (VF) vibrations that ultimately results in self-sustained oscillation and the production of modal voice. Motivated by histological studies, much research has focused on the role of the layered structure of the vocal folds in influencing phonation onset, wherein the outer "cover" layer is relatively soft and the inner "body" layer is relatively stiff. Recent research, however, suggests that the body-cover (BC) structure over-simplifies actual stiffness distributions by neglecting important spatial variations, such as inferior-superior (IS) and anterior-posterior gradients and smooth transitions in stiffness from one histological layer to another. Herein, we explore sensitivity of phonation onset to stiffness gradients and smoothness. By assuming no a priori stiffness distribution and considering a second-order Taylor series sensitivity analysis of phonation onset pressure with respect to stiffness, we find two general smooth stiffness distributions most strongly influence onset pressure: a smooth stiffness containing aspects of BC differences and IS gradients in the cover, which plays a role in minimizing onset pressure, and uniform increases in stiffness, which raise onset pressure and frequency. While the smooth stiffness change contains aspects qualitatively similar to layered BC distributions used in computational studies, smooth transitions in stiffness result in higher sensitivity of onset pressure than discrete layering. These two general stiffness distributions also provide a simple, low-dimensional, interpretation of how complex variations in VF stiffness affect onset pressure, enabling refined exploration of the effects of stiffness distributions on phonation onset.