Can COVID-19 herd immunity be achieved at a city level? 2024

Yuval Arbel, and Yifat Arbel, and Amichai Kerner, and Miryam Kerner
Sir Harry Solomon School of Economics and Management, Western Galilee College, Acre, Israel.

We propose a new approach to estimate the vaccination rates required to achieve herd immunity against SARS-COV2 virus at a city level. Based on information obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, we estimate two separate quadratic models, one for each dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA Pfizer vaccine. The dependent variable is the scope of morbidity, expressed as the number of cases per 10,000 persons. The independent variables are the first and second vaccination rates and their squares. The outcomes corroborate that herd immunity is achieved in the case that 71 percent of the urban population is vaccinated, and the minimum anticipated scope of morbidity is approximately 5 active COVID-19 cases per 10,000 persons, compared to 53-67 cases per 10,000 persons for zero vaccination rate. Findings emphasize the importance of vaccinations and demonstrate that urban herd immunity may be defined as a situation in which people continue to interact, yet the COVID-19 spread is contained. This, in turn, might prevent the need for lockdowns or other limitations at the city level.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007557 Israel A country in the Middle East, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, between Egypt and Lebanon. The capital is Jerusalem.
D002947 Cities A large or important municipality of a country, usually a major metropolitan center. Municipalities,Towns
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000086382 COVID-19 A viral disorder generally characterized by high FEVER; COUGH; DYSPNEA; CHILLS; PERSISTENT TREMOR; MUSCLE PAIN; HEADACHE; SORE THROAT; a new loss of taste and/or smell (see AGEUSIA and ANOSMIA) and other symptoms of a VIRAL PNEUMONIA. In severe cases, a myriad of coagulopathy associated symptoms often correlating with COVID-19 severity is seen (e.g., BLOOD COAGULATION; THROMBOSIS; ACUTE RESPIRATORY DISTRESS SYNDROME; SEIZURES; HEART ATTACK; STROKE; multiple CEREBRAL INFARCTIONS; KIDNEY FAILURE; catastrophic ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODY SYNDROME and/or DISSEMINATED INTRAVASCULAR COAGULATION). In younger patients, rare inflammatory syndromes are sometimes associated with COVID-19 (e.g., atypical KAWASAKI SYNDROME; TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME; pediatric multisystem inflammatory disease; and CYTOKINE STORM SYNDROME). A coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in the genus BETACORONAVIRUS is the causative agent. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease,2019 Novel Coronavirus Infection,2019-nCoV Disease,2019-nCoV Infection,COVID-19 Pandemic,COVID-19 Pandemics,COVID-19 Virus Disease,COVID-19 Virus Infection,Coronavirus Disease 2019,Coronavirus Disease-19,SARS Coronavirus 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infection,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection,COVID19,2019 nCoV Disease,2019 nCoV Infection,2019-nCoV Diseases,2019-nCoV Infections,COVID 19,COVID 19 Pandemic,COVID 19 Virus Disease,COVID 19 Virus Infection,COVID-19 Virus Diseases,COVID-19 Virus Infections,Coronavirus Disease 19,Disease 2019, Coronavirus,Disease, 2019-nCoV,Disease, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, 2019-nCoV,Infection, COVID-19 Virus,Infection, SARS-CoV-2,Pandemic, COVID-19,SARS CoV 2 Infection,SARS-CoV-2 Infections,Virus Disease, COVID-19,Virus Infection, COVID-19
D000086402 SARS-CoV-2 A species of BETACORONAVIRUS causing atypical respiratory disease (COVID-19) in humans. The organism was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China. The natural host is the Chinese intermediate horseshoe bat, RHINOLOPHUS affinis. 2019 Novel Coronavirus,COVID-19 Virus,COVID19 Virus,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus,SARS Coronavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2 Virus,Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2,Wuhan Coronavirus,Wuhan Seafood Market Pneumonia Virus,2019-nCoV,2019 Novel Coronaviruses,COVID 19 Virus,COVID-19 Viruses,COVID19 Viruses,Coronavirus 2, SARS,Coronavirus, 2019 Novel,Coronavirus, Wuhan,Novel Coronavirus, 2019,SARS CoV 2 Virus,SARS-CoV-2 Viruses,Virus, COVID-19,Virus, COVID19,Virus, SARS-CoV-2,Viruses, COVID19
D000086663 COVID-19 Vaccines Vaccines or candidate vaccines containing SARS-CoV-2 component antigens, genetic materials, or inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus, and designed to prevent COVID-19. 2019 Novel Coronavirus Vaccine,2019 Novel Coronavirus Vaccines,2019-nCoV Vaccine,2019-nCoV Vaccines,COVID 19 Vaccine,COVID-19 Vaccine,COVID-19 Virus Vaccine,COVID-19 Virus Vaccines,COVID19 Vaccine,COVID19 Vaccines,COVID19 Virus Vaccine,COVID19 Virus Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease 2019 Virus Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease-19 Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease-19 Vaccines,SARS Coronavirus 2 Vaccines,SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine,SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines,SARS2 Vaccine,SARS2 Vaccines,2019 nCoV Vaccine,2019 nCoV Vaccines,COVID 19 Vaccines,COVID 19 Virus Vaccine,COVID 19 Virus Vaccines,Coronavirus Disease 19 Vaccine,Coronavirus Disease 19 Vaccines,SARS CoV 2 Vaccine,SARS CoV 2 Vaccines,Vaccine, 2019-nCoV,Vaccine, COVID 19,Vaccine, COVID-19,Vaccine, COVID-19 Virus,Vaccine, COVID19,Vaccine, COVID19 Virus,Vaccine, Coronavirus Disease-19,Vaccine, SARS-CoV-2,Vaccine, SARS2,Vaccines, 2019-nCoV,Vaccines, COVID-19,Vaccines, COVID-19 Virus,Vaccines, COVID19,Vaccines, COVID19 Virus,Vaccines, Coronavirus Disease-19,Vaccines, SARS-CoV-2,Vaccines, SARS2,Virus Vaccine, COVID-19,Virus Vaccine, COVID19,Virus Vaccines, COVID-19,Virus Vaccines, COVID19
D000090982 BNT162 Vaccine mRNA vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 developed by Pfizer and BioNTech. Abdavomeran,BNT-162A1,BNT-162B1,BNT-162B2,BNT-162C2,BNT162A1,BNT162B1,BNT162B2,BNT162C2,COVID-19 Vaccine Pfizer-BioNTech,Comirnaty,Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine,Pidacmeran,Tozinameran,BNT 162A1,BNT 162B1,BNT 162B2,BNT 162C2,COVID 19 Vaccine Pfizer BioNTech,Covid-19 Vaccine, Pfizer,Pfizer Covid 19 Vaccine,Pfizer-BioNTech, COVID-19 Vaccine,Vaccine Pfizer-BioNTech, COVID-19,Vaccine, BNT162,Vaccine, Pfizer Covid-19
D014505 Urban Population The inhabitants of a city or town, including metropolitan areas and suburban areas. Urban Residence,Urban Spatial Distribution,Distribution, Urban Spatial,Distributions, Urban Spatial,Population, Urban,Populations, Urban,Residence, Urban,Urban Populations,Urban Residences,Urban Spatial Distributions
D014611 Vaccination Administration of vaccines to stimulate the host's immune response. This includes any preparation intended for active immunological prophylaxis. Immunization, Active,Active Immunization,Active Immunizations,Immunizations, Active,Vaccinations
D032521 Immunity, Herd The state of a community in which a significant proportion of its population becomes immune to an infectious disease, and the risk of person-to-person transmission decreases. Individuals who are not immune and susceptible are indirectly protected because ongoing disease spread is very small. Community Immunity,Herd Immunity,Population Immunity,Community Immunities,Immunity, Community,Immunity, Population

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