Forty-three patients with non-endogenous depressive disorders were assessed shortly after psychiatric referral, and reassessed at six and at 20 weeks. The pattern of improvement appeared to be set shortly after the initial consultation, but could be most clearly predicted by the degree of improvement at the end of the third week. Key baseline factors predicting a more marked improvement at each follow-up were a more severe depression, the break-up of an intimate relationship, and the presence of weight loss. Positive life events occurring after the initial assessment predicted improvement at six and at 20 weeks, while the presence of a neutralising event (which negated an earlier threatening life event) predicted improvement at 20 weeks.