A mathematical model of speedskating performance improvement for goal setting and program evaluation. 1979

J D McClements, and W H Laverty

An analysis of world class performance improvement over chronological time was used to develop mathematical curves of performance for each speedskating event. The equations were calculated using an unconstrained non-linear least squares iterative curve-fitting technique. A non-linear model was selected to satisfy the principle of diminishing returns, that is, it is more difficult to achieve a unit of performance improvement as performance approaches the theoretical limits of man. Minimum criteria of acceptance for each curve were: 1) the coefficient of determination must be 0.90; 2) the year 2000 predicted value must be less than the current world record; and 3) the curve must be progressive, i.e. satisfy the principle of diminishing returns. Satisfactory curves were calculated for seven of the eight male and female events studied. A four year Olympic cycle was noted and a definite change in performance trend was identified as occurring in the mid 1960's. The calculated mathematical curves can be used in three applications: 1) setting objective individual goals and evaluating these goals; 2) evaluating and comparing training programs on successive years; and 3) evaluating total programs.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008433 Mathematics The deductive study of shape, quantity, and dependence. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Mathematic
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D005260 Female Females
D006040 Goals The end-result or objective, which may be specified or required in advance. Goal
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012861 Skating Using ice skates, roller skates, or skateboards in racing or other competition or for recreation. Ice Skating,Skateboarding,Ice Skatings,Skateboardings,Skating, Ice,Skatings,Skatings, Ice
D013177 Sports Activities or games, usually involving physical effort or skill. Reasons for engagement in sports include pleasure, competition, and/or financial reward. Athletics,Athletic,Sport
D013178 Sports Medicine The field of medicine concerned with physical fitness and the diagnosis and treatment of injuries sustained in exercise and sports activities. Medicine, Sport,Medicine, Sports,Sport Medicine
D013647 Task Performance and Analysis The detailed examination of observable activity or behavior associated with the execution or completion of a required function or unit of work. Critical Incident Technique,Critical Incident Technic,Task Performance,Task Performance, Analysis,Critical Incident Technics,Critical Incident Techniques,Incident Technic, Critical,Incident Technics, Critical,Incident Technique, Critical,Incident Techniques, Critical,Performance, Analysis Task,Performance, Task,Performances, Analysis Task,Performances, Task,Task Performances,Task Performances, Analysis,Technic, Critical Incident,Technics, Critical Incident,Technique, Critical Incident,Techniques, Critical Incident

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