Current projections for ophthalmology manpower needs in the year 2000 suggest that the number of new ophthalmologists trained should be frozen at 500 a year. Factors that would cause a need to train more ophthalmologists would be a shorter workweek or workyear, an increased length of time for each patient visit, universal comprehensive health insurance, an earlier age of retirement, and an increased incidence of eye disease. The factor that would most likely reduce the need for new ophthalmologists would be the transfer of primary eye care delivery to nonophthalmologists. Modulation of resident numbers should be based on peer-judged program quality, not on geography or government edict.