Demand or ideation? Evidence from the Iranian marital fertility decline. 1995

A E Raftery, and S M Lewis, and A Aghajanian
University of Washington, USA.

Is the onset of fertility decline caused by structural socioeconomic changes or by the transmission of new ideas? The decline of marital fertility in Iran provides a quasi-experimental setting for addressing this question. Massive economic growth started in 1955; measurable ideational changes took place in 1967. We argue that the decline is described more precisely by demand theory than by ideation theory. It began around 1959, just after the onset of massive economic growth but well before the ideational changes. It paralleled the rapid growth of participation in primary education, and we found no evidence that the 1967 events had any effect on the decline. More than one-quarter of the decline can be attributed to the reduction in child mortality, a key mechanism of demand theory. Several other findings support this main conclusion.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D007492 Iran A country bordering the Gulf of Oman, the Persian Gulf, and the Caspian Sea, between Iraq and Pakistan. The capital is Tehran. Islamic Republic of Iran
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011157 Population Dynamics The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population. Malthusianism,Neomalthusianism,Demographic Aging,Demographic Transition,Optimum Population,Population Decrease,Population Pressure,Population Replacement,Population Theory,Residential Mobility,Rural-Urban Migration,Stable Population,Stationary Population,Aging, Demographic,Decrease, Population,Decreases, Population,Demographic Transitions,Dynamics, Population,Migration, Rural-Urban,Migrations, Rural-Urban,Mobilities, Residential,Mobility, Residential,Optimum Populations,Population Decreases,Population Pressures,Population Replacements,Population Theories,Population, Optimum,Population, Stable,Population, Stationary,Populations, Optimum,Populations, Stable,Populations, Stationary,Pressure, Population,Pressures, Population,Replacement, Population,Replacements, Population,Residential Mobilities,Rural Urban Migration,Rural-Urban Migrations,Stable Populations,Stationary Populations,Theories, Population,Theory, Population,Transition, Demographic,Transitions, Demographic
D011247 Pregnancy The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH. Gestation,Pregnancies
D001723 Birth Rate The number of births in a given population per year or other unit of time. Natality,Age-Specific Birth Rate,Age-Specific Fertility Rate,Fertility Rate,Age Specific Birth Rate,Age Specific Fertility Rate,Age-Specific Birth Rates,Age-Specific Fertility Rates,Birth Rate, Age-Specific,Birth Rates,Fertility Rate, Age-Specific,Fertility Rates,Natalities,Rate, Age-Specific Fertility,Rate, Birth,Rate, Fertility
D003906 Developing Countries Countries in the process of change with economic growth, that is, an increase in production, per capita consumption, and income. The process of economic growth involves better utilization of natural and human resources, which results in a change in the social, political, and economic structures. LMICs,Less-Developed Countries,Low Income Countries,Low and Middle Income Countries,Lower-Middle-Income Country,Middle Income Countries,Third-World Countries,Under-Developed Countries,Developing Nations,Least Developed Countries,Less-Developed Nations,Third-World Nations,Under-Developed Nations,Countries, Middle Income,Countries, Third-World,Country, Least Developed,Country, Less-Developed,Country, Low Income,Country, Lower-Middle-Income,Country, Middle Income,Country, Third-World,Country, Under-Developed,Developed Country, Least,Developing Country,Developing Nation,Least Developed Country,Less Developed Countries,Less Developed Nations,Less-Developed Country,Less-Developed Nation,Low Income Country,Lower Middle Income Country,Lower-Middle-Income Countries,Middle Income Country,Nation, Less-Developed,Nation, Third-World,Nation, Under-Developed,Third World Countries,Third World Nations,Third-World Country,Third-World Nation,Under Developed Countries,Under Developed Nations,Under-Developed Country,Under-Developed Nation
D004059 Diffusion of Innovation The broad dissemination of new ideas, procedures, techniques, materials, and devices and the degree to which these are accepted and used. Innovation Diffusion,Diffusion, Innovation
D005260 Female Females

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