Recent cancer trends in the United States. 1995

S S Devesa, and W J Blot, and B J Stone, and B A Miller, and R E Tarone, and J F Fraumeni
Division of Cancer Etiology, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892-7368, USA.

BACKGROUND Cancer incidence rates have been reported to be increasing in the United States, although trends vary according to form of cancer. OBJECTIVE We identify the cancers accounting for the rising incidence, quantify the changes that have occurred from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s, and contrast incidence and mortality trends to provide clues to the determinants of the temporal patterns. METHODS Sex-, race-, and age-specific and age-adjusted incidence rates for the 5-year periods 1987-1991 versus 1975-1979 were calculated for 28 cancers among men and 30 cancers among women using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of cancer registration covering about 10% of the U.S. population. Similar rates were computed using national mortality data. Cancers were ranked according to the change in incidence rates over the two periods. RESULTS Age-adjusted incidence rates for all cancers combined increased by 18.6% among males and 12.4% among females from 1975-1979 to 1987-1991, due largely to rising rates for prostate cancer among men and for breast and lung cancers among women. National mortality rates for all cancers combined rose less steeply, 3% and 6% among men and women, respectively, driven mostly by continuing increases in lung cancer mortality, while death rates for the majority of the cancers were steady or declining. Total cancer incidence rose at all ages, but with different tumors responsible for the increases at different ages: leukemia and brain/nervous system cancer among children; testicular cancer, nonmelanoma skin cancer (largely Kaposi's sarcoma), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and melanoma among young and middle-aged adults; and prostate, breast, and lung cancers among older individuals. In contrast, mortality rates for all cancers combined declined among both males and females under age 55 years, increasing only among older persons. CONCLUSIONS Trends in cancer incidence and mortality differ. For most cancers, incidence rates are rising, while mortality rates are generally stable or declining. CONCLUSIONS Much of the recent increase in cancer incidence can be explained by known factors. Improved detection appears to account for most of the increases in breast cancer among women and prostate cancer among men. On the other hand, cigarette smoking is the major determinant of the rise in lung cancer among women, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome has led to increases in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and Kaposi's sarcoma among young and middle-aged men, and sunlight exposure patterns have affected the trends in melanoma. Some trends remain unexplained, however, and may reflect changing exposures to carcinogens yet to be identified and clarified.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D009369 Neoplasms New abnormal growth of tissue. Malignant neoplasms show a greater degree of anaplasia and have the properties of invasion and metastasis, compared to benign neoplasms. Benign Neoplasm,Cancer,Malignant Neoplasm,Tumor,Tumors,Benign Neoplasms,Malignancy,Malignant Neoplasms,Neoplasia,Neoplasm,Neoplasms, Benign,Cancers,Malignancies,Neoplasias,Neoplasm, Benign,Neoplasm, Malignant,Neoplasms, Malignant
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D015994 Incidence The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time. Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates
D017677 Age Distribution The frequency of different ages or age groups in a given population. The distribution may refer to either how many or what proportion of the group. The population is usually patients with a specific disease but the concept is not restricted to humans and is not restricted to medicine. Age Distributions,Distribution, Age,Distributions, Age
D017678 Sex Distribution The number of males and females in a given population. The distribution may refer to how many men or women or what proportion of either in the group. The population is usually patients with a specific disease but the concept is not restricted to humans and is not restricted to medicine. Distribution, Sex,Distributions, Sex,Sex Distributions
D044469 Racial Groups Groups of individuals with similar physical appearances often reinforced by cultural, social and/or linguistic similarities. Continental Population Groups,Race,Racial Stocks,Continental Population Group,Group, Continental Population,Group, Racial,Groups, Continental Population,Groups, Racial,Population Group, Continental,Population Groups, Continental,Races,Racial Group,Racial Stock,Stock, Racial,Stocks, Racial

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