Predicting the growth of aortic aneurysms: a comparison of linear vs exponential models. 1995

Y Hirose, and S Hamada, and M Takamiya
Department of Radiology, National Cardiovascular Center, Osaka, Japan.

The aim of the present study was to determine whether the growth curve of aortic aneurysms had a predictable pattern, specifically whether the growth pattern was better defined by a linear or exponential rate of growth. A twelve-year retrospective review was undertaken. The authors studied 59 patients with aortic aneurysm who have been followed up nonoperatively for more than three years with sequential computed tomographic (CT) scans. There was a total of 74 aortic aneurysms (thoracic aortic aneurysm [TAA]: 30, abdominal aortic aneurysm [AAA]: 44). The diameter of the aortic aneurysm was normalized by dividing by the initial diameter. Exponential (y = A exp [Bt]) and linear (y = C+Dt) regression curves of growth of aneurysmal diameters were calculated, where y is the normalized diameter and t is the time after first CT examination in months. In regression analysis, the values fit well to the exponential growth curves, giving high regression coefficients. Exponential regression equations of TAA and AAA were y = 1.0192 exp (0.0032t), r = 0.720 and y = 1.0129 exp (0.0045t), r = 0.789, respectively. The results in favor of the exponential curve analysis were slightly higher than those favoring the linear curve. This is the first study that showed the growth curves of aortic aneurysms. Aortic aneurysms may grow exponentially rather than linearly with time, and the growth curves might be useful for estimating the natural history or predicting the timing of surgery.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D008955 Models, Cardiovascular Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of the cardiovascular system, processes, or phenomena; includes the use of mathematical equations, computers and other electronic equipment. Cardiovascular Model,Cardiovascular Models,Model, Cardiovascular
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000369 Aged, 80 and over Persons 80 years of age and older. Oldest Old
D001014 Aortic Aneurysm An abnormal balloon- or sac-like dilatation in the wall of AORTA. Aneurysm, Aortic,Aneurysms, Aortic,Aortic Aneurysms
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective

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