Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. 1995

J C Duffy
Alcohol Research Group, Department of Psychiatry, Morningside Park, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK.

BACKGROUND Prospective studies of alcohol and mortality in middle-aged men almost universally find a U-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality. This review demonstrates the extent to which different studies lead to different risk estimates, analyses the putative influence of abstention as a risk factor and uses available data to produce point and interval estimates of the consumption level apparently associated with minimum risk from two studies in the UK. METHODS Data from a number of studies are analysed by means of logistic-linear modelling, taking account of the possible influence of abstention as a special risk factor. Separate analysis of British data is performed. RESULTS Logistic-linear modelling demonstrates large and highly significant differences between the studies considered in the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality. The results support the identification of abstention as a special risk factor for mortality, but do not indicate that this alone explains the apparent U-shaped relationship. Separate analysis of two British studies indicates minimum risk of mortality in this population at a consumption level of about 26 (8.5 g) units of alcohol per week. CONCLUSIONS The analysis supports the view that abstention may be a specific risk factor for all-cause mortality, but is not an adequate explanation of the apparent protective effect of alcohol consumption against all-cause mortality. Future analyses might better be performed on a case-by-case basis, using a change-point model to estimate the parameters of the relationship. The current misinterpretation of the sensible drinking level of 21 units per week for men in the UK as a limit is not justified, and the data suggest that alcohol consumption is a net preventive factor against premature death in this population.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D002641 Chicago A city in Illinois.
D006113 United Kingdom Country in northwestern Europe including Great Britain and the northern one-sixth of the island of Ireland, located between the North Sea and north Atlantic Ocean. The capital is London. Great Britain,Isle of Man
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000367 Age Factors Age as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or the effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from AGING, a physiological process, and TIME FACTORS which refers only to the passage of time. Age Reporting,Age Factor,Factor, Age,Factors, Age
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly

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