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Predicting Mycobacterium avium complex bacteremia in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus: a prospectively validated model. 1994

D P Chin, and A L Reingold, and C R Horsburgh, and D M Yajko, and W K Hadley, and E P Elkin, and E N Stone, and E M Simon, and P C Gonzalez, and S M Ostroff
Medical Service, San Francisco General Hospital Medical Center, California.

In cases of advanced infection with human immunodeficiency virus, mycobacterial blood cultures are frequently used to diagnose disseminated infection with the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC). However, no prospectively validated guidelines exist for the use of such cultures. In this study, a two-part model for predicting MAC bacteremia was developed and then validated prospectively. First, a CD4+ cell count of < or = 50/microL was used to predict bacteremia. Then, among patients with < or = 50 CD4+ cells/microL, the documentation of fever on more than 30 days during the preceding 3 months, a hematocrit of < 30%, or a serum albumin concentration of < 3.0 g/dL was used to predict bacteremia. This model had a sensitivity of 89% and positive and negative predictive values of 30% and 98%, respectively, for the identification of patients with bacteremia. Had the model been applied to patients in this study, the number of blood cultures performed would have decreased by 61%, but 11% of the positive cultures would have been missed. In short, this model can predict MAC bacteremia and can potentially guide the use of mycobacterial blood cultures.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D003661 Decision Support Techniques Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making. Decision Analysis,Decision Modeling,Models, Decision Support,Analysis, Decision,Decision Aids,Decision Support Technics,Aid, Decision,Aids, Decision,Analyses, Decision,Decision Aid,Decision Analyses,Decision Support Model,Decision Support Models,Decision Support Technic,Decision Support Technique,Model, Decision Support,Modeling, Decision,Technic, Decision Support,Technics, Decision Support,Technique, Decision Support,Techniques, Decision Support
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D001431 Bacteriological Techniques Techniques used in studying bacteria. Bacteriologic Technic,Bacteriologic Technics,Bacteriologic Techniques,Bacteriological Technique,Technic, Bacteriological,Technics, Bacteriological,Technique, Bacteriological,Techniques, Bacteriological,Bacteriologic Technique,Bacteriological Technic,Bacteriological Technics,Technic, Bacteriologic,Technics, Bacteriologic,Technique, Bacteriologic,Techniques, Bacteriologic
D015269 Mycobacterium avium Complex A complex that includes several strains of M. avium. M. intracellulare is not easily distinguished from M. avium and therefore is included in the complex. These organisms are most frequently found in pulmonary secretions from persons with a tuberculous-like mycobacteriosis. Strains of this complex have also been associated with childhood lymphadenitis and AIDS; M. avium alone causes tuberculosis in a variety of birds and other animals, including pigs. Battey Bacillus,MAIC,Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare,Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare Complex,Mycobacterium intracellulare,Nocardia intracellularis
D015270 Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare Infection A nontuberculous infection when occurring in humans. It is characterized by pulmonary disease, lymphadenitis in children, and systemic disease in AIDS patients. Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare infection of birds and swine results in tuberculosis. Mycobacterium intracellulare Infection,Infection, Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare,Infection, Mycobacterium intracellulare,Mycobacterium avium intracellulare Infection,Infection, Mycobacterium avium intracellulare,Infections, Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare,Infections, Mycobacterium intracellulare,Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare Infections,Mycobacterium intracellulare Infections

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