Effect of regression to the mean in serial echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular mass. Quantification and clinical implications. 1994

D Herpin, and J Demange
Service Cardiologie B, Centre Hospitalo-Universitaire, Poitiers, France.

When a study sample is selected on the basis of an increased value of a given parameter, subsequent serial measurements are likely to show a decrease in this measured parameter, that is, the "regression to the mean." This statistical phenomenon undoubtedly affects the results of echocardiographic follow-up studies. Its magnitude is linked to that of the intraindividual variability of the measurements. Therefore, we undertook a prospective study aimed at assessing the different components of the variability of repeated measurements of left ventricular (LV) mass index. For this purpose, 25 consecutive patients underwent two echocardiograms 2 weeks apart. An analysis of variance for the nested design (random-effect model) was performed: inter- and intraindividual variabilities accounted for 70% and 30% of the total variability, respectively. Moreover, the contribution of the readings to the total variability did not exceed 2%, whereas the contribution of both recordings and time reached 28%. Further calculations allowed the expected magnitude of the regression to the mean to be quantified according to the baseline left ventricular mass index. For instance, when patients are selected on the basis of an increased LV mass index with a mean baseline value of 150 g/m2, a spontaneous decrease of 12% (related solely to the regression to the mean) has to be expected for the following measurement. Accordingly, the results of open uncontrolled echocardiographic follow-up studies should be reevaluated: an adjustment for the potential influence of the regression to the mean has to be done.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D006973 Hypertension Persistently high systemic arterial BLOOD PRESSURE. Based on multiple readings (BLOOD PRESSURE DETERMINATION), hypertension is currently defined as when SYSTOLIC PRESSURE is consistently greater than 140 mm Hg or when DIASTOLIC PRESSURE is consistently 90 mm Hg or more. Blood Pressure, High,Blood Pressures, High,High Blood Pressure,High Blood Pressures
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D004452 Echocardiography Ultrasonic recording of the size, motion, and composition of the heart and surrounding tissues. The standard approach is transthoracic. Echocardiography, Contrast,Echocardiography, Cross-Sectional,Echocardiography, M-Mode,Echocardiography, Transthoracic,Echocardiography, Two-Dimensional,Transthoracic Echocardiography,2-D Echocardiography,2D Echocardiography,Contrast Echocardiography,Cross-Sectional Echocardiography,Echocardiography, 2-D,Echocardiography, 2D,M-Mode Echocardiography,Two-Dimensional Echocardiography,2 D Echocardiography,Cross Sectional Echocardiography,Echocardiography, 2 D,Echocardiography, Cross Sectional,Echocardiography, M Mode,Echocardiography, Two Dimensional,M Mode Echocardiography,Two Dimensional Echocardiography
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000704 Analysis of Variance A statistical technique that isolates and assesses the contributions of categorical independent variables to variation in the mean of a continuous dependent variable. ANOVA,Analysis, Variance,Variance Analysis,Analyses, Variance,Variance Analyses

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