Dengue severity throughout seasonal changes in incidence in Puerto Rico, 1989-1992. The Puerto Rico Association of Epidemiologists. 1994

J G Rigau-Perez, and A Ayuso-Lamadrid, and D R Wolff, and P Reiter, and G Kuno
Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico.

To determine whether the proportion of severe dengue cases increased with the yearly seasonal increase in dengue incidence, we examined reports of disease symptoms in case surveillance data and laboratory testing results in Puerto Rico from January 1989 to July 1992. A computer algorithm was designed to identify severe cases, i.e., those that fulfilled three or all four of the World Health Organization criteria for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). A monthly severity index (SI) was defined as the ratio of severe cases to laboratory-positive and indeterminate (all non-negative) cases for each month, while a more restrictive severity rate (SR) was defined as the ratio of severe laboratory-positive cases to the total number of laboratory-positive cases for each month. Monthly SI and SR were compared in two ways: within an epidemic cycle, and month-by-month. Linear regression analysis was performed over the monthly averages of the SI and SR. For a month-by-month examination of SI and SR, we examined the 43-month sequence by means of a linear model with autocorrelated disturbances. We found no statistically significant or cyclical change in the proportion of severe cases from month to month in this period. Our conclusions differ from the observations during the Cuban DHF epidemic of 1981, in which case severity was shown to increase markedly as the epidemic progressed; they agree with the conclusions of most previous studies in that dengue severity does not change significantly throughout a period of increased incidence.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011647 Puerto Rico An island in the Greater Antilles in the West Indies. Its capital is San Juan. It is a self-governing commonwealth in union with the United States. It was discovered by Columbus in 1493 but no colonization was attempted until 1508. It belonged to Spain until ceded to the United States in 1898. It became a commonwealth with autonomy in internal affairs in 1952. Columbus named the island San Juan for St. John's Day, the Monday he arrived, and the bay Puerto Rico, rich harbor. The island became Puerto Rico officially in 1932. (From Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988, p987 & Room, Brewer's Dictionary of Names, 1992, p436)
D003715 Dengue An acute febrile disease transmitted by the bite of AEDES mosquitoes infected with DENGUE VIRUS. It is self-limiting and characterized by fever, myalgia, headache, and rash. SEVERE DENGUE is a more virulent form of dengue. Dengue Fever,Break-Bone Fever,Breakbone Fever,Classical Dengue,Classical Dengue Fever,Break Bone Fever,Classical Dengue Fevers,Classical Dengues,Dengue Fever, Classical,Dengue, Classical,Fever, Break-Bone,Fever, Breakbone,Fever, Dengue
D003716 Dengue Virus A species of the genus FLAVIVIRUS which causes an acute febrile and sometimes hemorrhagic disease in man. Dengue is mosquito-borne and four serotypes are known. Breakbone Fever Virus,Breakbone Fever Viruses,Dengue Viruses,Fever Virus, Breakbone,Fever Viruses, Breakbone,Virus, Breakbone Fever,Virus, Dengue,Viruses, Breakbone Fever,Viruses, Dengue
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D012703 Serotyping Process of determining and distinguishing species of bacteria or viruses based on antigens they share. Serotypings
D012720 Severity of Illness Index Levels within a diagnostic group which are established by various measurement criteria applied to the seriousness of a patient's disorder. Illness Index Severities,Illness Index Severity
D015994 Incidence The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time. Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates
D016014 Linear Models Statistical models in which the value of a parameter for a given value of a factor is assumed to be equal to a + bx, where a and b are constants. The models predict a linear regression. Linear Regression,Log-Linear Models,Models, Linear,Linear Model,Linear Regressions,Log Linear Models,Log-Linear Model,Model, Linear,Model, Log-Linear,Models, Log-Linear,Regression, Linear,Regressions, Linear

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