Human postmortem interval estimation from vitreous potassium: an analysis of original data from six different studies. 1994

N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
National Institutes of Health, NINDS, Bethesda, MD 20892.

The investigation of the postmortem interval (PMI) by determining potassium levels in the vitreous humor (KV) has been a subject of forensic pathology research for more than a quarter of a century. The numerous studies to date have yielded a variety of linear or piecewise-linear relationships between KV and PMI, i.e., different estimated intercepts and slopes of regression line(s) as well as different reliabilities of these estimates. This lack of agreement is due in part to the variable numbers of cases reported from study to study, differing observed ranges of KV and PMI, and the unaccommodated effects of factors on potassium concentration, including age of subject, amount of urea nitrogen, ambient temperature, and presence of illness. Original data from six of these studies, for a total of 790 cases, are reanalyzed together. The relationship between KV and PMI is not completely linear, and the residual variability of KV as a function of PMI is not constant. Thus, two main assumptions of the simple linear model, linearity and constant variance, are not supported by the data. It is clearly problematic to report statistical summaries such as the slope of an estimated regression line and the reliability of that estimate based on a model with faulty assumptions. Yet even after rescaling the data in an attempt to achieve linearity in the KV-PMI relationship and to stabilize residual variation, the relationship continues to be non-linear and its variability unstable. A new approach is developed for modeling KV and PMI that accommodates non-linearities and changing residual variability. A local regression model, specifically a loess smooth curve, is fitted separately to the data from each of the six studies. The loess smooth curve adapts locally to the changing and possibly non-linear relationship between KV and PMI across their observed ranges. The data from all six studies are then combined to yield a single loess curve with 95% confidence bands. The estimated loess curve and confidence bands are used in an inverse prediction method to construct low, middle and high PMI estimates at given values of KV. The reliability of estimated PMI decreases as KV increases. Although the confidence bands surrounding the overall curve widen in the extreme high end due to there being fewer available data in that region, PMI estimates are more precise over the entire range of KV and PMI than those obtained from any single study alone. A cross-validation procedure provides an independent check of the predictive performance of the method.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011180 Postmortem Changes Physiological changes that occur in bodies after death. Adipocere,Algor Mortis,Cruor,Livor Mortis,Change, Postmortem,Changes, Postmortem,Postmortem Change
D011188 Potassium An element in the alkali group of metals with an atomic symbol K, atomic number 19, and atomic weight 39.10. It is the chief cation in the intracellular fluid of muscle and other cells. Potassium ion is a strong electrolyte that plays a significant role in the regulation of fluid volume and maintenance of the WATER-ELECTROLYTE BALANCE.
D001806 Blood Urea Nitrogen The urea concentration of the blood stated in terms of nitrogen content. Serum (plasma) urea nitrogen is approximately 12% higher than blood urea nitrogen concentration because of the greater protein content of red blood cells. Increases in blood or serum urea nitrogen are referred to as azotemia and may have prerenal, renal, or postrenal causes. (From Saunders Dictionary & Encyclopedia of Laboratory Medicine and Technology, 1984) BUN,Nitrogen, Blood Urea,Urea Nitrogen, Blood
D005069 Evaluation Studies as Topic Works about studies that determine the effectiveness or value of processes, personnel, and equipment, or the material on conducting such studies. Critique,Evaluation Indexes,Evaluation Methodology,Evaluation Report,Evaluation Research,Methodology, Evaluation,Pre-Post Tests,Qualitative Evaluation,Quantitative Evaluation,Theoretical Effectiveness,Use-Effectiveness,Critiques,Effectiveness, Theoretical,Evaluation Methodologies,Evaluation Reports,Evaluation, Qualitative,Evaluation, Quantitative,Evaluations, Qualitative,Evaluations, Quantitative,Indexes, Evaluation,Methodologies, Evaluation,Pre Post Tests,Pre-Post Test,Qualitative Evaluations,Quantitative Evaluations,Report, Evaluation,Reports, Evaluation,Research, Evaluation,Test, Pre-Post,Tests, Pre-Post,Use Effectiveness
D005554 Forensic Medicine The application of medical knowledge to questions of law. Legal Medicine,Medicine, Forensic,Medicine, Legal
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000367 Age Factors Age as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or the effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from AGING, a physiological process, and TIME FACTORS which refers only to the passage of time. Age Reporting,Age Factor,Factor, Age,Factors, Age
D012680 Sensitivity and Specificity Binary classification measures to assess test results. Sensitivity or recall rate is the proportion of true positives. Specificity is the probability of correctly determining the absence of a condition. (From Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed) Specificity,Sensitivity,Specificity and Sensitivity
D013696 Temperature The property of objects that determines the direction of heat flow when they are placed in direct thermal contact. The temperature is the energy of microscopic motions (vibrational and translational) of the particles of atoms. Temperatures
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor

Related Publications

N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
October 1963, Journal of forensic sciences,
N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
June 2016, Forensic science international,
N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
January 2021, Wiadomosci lekarskie (Warsaw, Poland : 1960),
N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
January 2016, Archiwum medycyny sadowej i kryminologii,
N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
November 2010, Journal of forensic sciences,
N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
May 1985, Forensic science international,
N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
April 2018, Fa yi xue za zhi,
N Lange, and S Swearer, and W Q Sturner
August 1964, American journal of clinical pathology,
Copied contents to your clipboard!