Prognostic factors and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. 1994

O B Tysnes, and S E Vollset, and J P Larsen, and J A Aarli
Department of Neurology, University of Bergen, Haukeland Hospital, Norway.

This study of clinical outcome in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) evaluated 148 patients (93 men and 55 women) diagnosed in Hordaland county, Norway, during the period 1970 to 1990. In addition to evaluation of clinical data, data were available on sex, age at diagnosis, time from appearance of symptoms to diagnosis, family history, EMG and spinal fluid. Sixty-nine cases were bulbar ALS and 79 were spinal ALS. Median survival from diagnosis was 16.5 months, 26.0 months in the spinal and 12.1 months in the bulbar form. The survival time decreased with increasing age at the start of disease. A brief interval from start of symptoms to diagnosis was also a poor prognostic factor. Cases with mainly spastic clinical appearance had longer survival than those with marked atrophy. Sex, appearance of familial cases, increased protein level in the spinal fluid, or disease confirmed or not by EMG had no influence on the prognosis. The importance of the prognostic variables was assessed simultaneously using a proportional hazards model. To test the validity of the prognostic factors, a binary survival outcome was established and a predictive rule determined by logistic regression. The data were applied on 11 ALS cases collected outside Hordaland county. Only 1 out of 7 patients with a predicted probability of living more than 1 year actually died within this time period. Two out of 4 patients in the poor prognostic group were dead within a year from the time of diagnosis.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009460 Neurologic Examination Assessment of sensory and motor responses and reflexes that is used to determine impairment of the nervous system. Examination, Neurologic,Neurological Examination,Examination, Neurological,Examinations, Neurologic,Examinations, Neurological,Neurologic Examinations,Neurological Examinations
D009664 Norway A country located in northern Europe, bordering the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, west of Sweden. The capital is Oslo. Kingdom of Norway
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D004576 Electromyography Recording of the changes in electric potential of muscle by means of surface or needle electrodes. Electromyogram,Surface Electromyography,Electromyograms,Electromyographies,Electromyographies, Surface,Electromyography, Surface,Surface Electromyographies
D005260 Female Females
D005500 Follow-Up Studies Studies in which individuals or populations are followed to assess the outcome of exposures, procedures, or effects of a characteristic, e.g., occurrence of disease. Followup Studies,Follow Up Studies,Follow-Up Study,Followup Study,Studies, Follow-Up,Studies, Followup,Study, Follow-Up,Study, Followup
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults

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