Empirical Bayes methods for estimating hospital-specific mortality rates. 1994

N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ 08541.

We present alternative methods for estimating hospital-level mortality rates to those used by the Health Care Finance Administration for Medicare patients. We use an empirical Bayes model to represent the different sources of variation in observed hospital-specific mortality rates and we use a logistic regression model to adjust for severity differences (in patient mix) across hospitals. In addition to providing a principled derivation of a standard error for the commonly used estimator, our fully model-based formulation produces much more accurate estimates and resolves the severe problem of multiple comparisons that arises when extreme estimates are used to identify exceptional hospitals. We estimate models for each of four disease conditions using the national Medicare mortality data base which does not contain patient severity descriptors, and mortality data from national samples which do include patient severity descriptors. We find substantial between-hospital variation in the unadjusted death rates from the national data base. Mortality rates differ substantially with patient severity in our models, but the sample sizes are too small to yield reliable estimates of the between-hospital variation in adjusted mortality rates.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009203 Myocardial Infarction NECROSIS of the MYOCARDIUM caused by an obstruction of the blood supply to the heart (CORONARY CIRCULATION). Cardiovascular Stroke,Heart Attack,Myocardial Infarct,Cardiovascular Strokes,Heart Attacks,Infarct, Myocardial,Infarction, Myocardial,Infarctions, Myocardial,Infarcts, Myocardial,Myocardial Infarctions,Myocardial Infarcts,Stroke, Cardiovascular,Strokes, Cardiovascular
D011014 Pneumonia Infection of the lung often accompanied by inflammation. Experimental Lung Inflammation,Lobar Pneumonia,Lung Inflammation,Pneumonia, Lobar,Pneumonitis,Pulmonary Inflammation,Experimental Lung Inflammations,Inflammation, Experimental Lung,Inflammation, Lung,Inflammation, Pulmonary,Inflammations, Lung,Inflammations, Pulmonary,Lobar Pneumonias,Lung Inflammation, Experimental,Lung Inflammations,Lung Inflammations, Experimental,Pneumonias,Pneumonias, Lobar,Pneumonitides,Pulmonary Inflammations
D011445 Prospective Payment System A system wherein reimbursement rates are set, for a given period of time, prior to the circumstances giving rise to actual reimbursement claims. Discretionary Adjustment Factor,Prospective Pricing,Prospective Reimbursement,Reimbursement, Prospective,Adjustment, Discretionary,Adjustment Factor, Discretionary,Adjustment Factors, Discretionary,Adjustments, Discretionary,Discretionary Adjustment,Discretionary Adjustment Factors,Discretionary Adjustments,Factor, Discretionary Adjustment,Factors, Discretionary Adjustment,Payment System, Prospective,Payment Systems, Prospective,Pricing, Prospective,Prospective Payment Systems,Prospective Reimbursements,Reimbursements, Prospective,System, Prospective Payment,Systems, Prospective Payment
D011785 Quality Assurance, Health Care Activities and programs intended to assure or improve the quality of care in either a defined medical setting or a program. The concept includes the assessment or evaluation of the quality of care; identification of problems or shortcomings in the delivery of care; designing activities to overcome these deficiencies; and follow-up monitoring to ensure effectiveness of corrective steps. Quality Assessment, Health Care,Health Care Quality Assessment,Health Care Quality Assurance,Healthcare Quality Assessment,Healthcare Quality Assurance,Quality Assessment, Healthcare,Quality Assurance, Healthcare,Assessment, Healthcare Quality,Assessments, Healthcare Quality,Assurance, Healthcare Quality,Assurances, Healthcare Quality,Healthcare Quality Assessments,Healthcare Quality Assurances,Quality Assessments, Healthcare,Quality Assurances, Healthcare
D002561 Cerebrovascular Disorders A spectrum of pathological conditions of impaired blood flow in the brain. They can involve vessels (ARTERIES or VEINS) in the CEREBRUM, the CEREBELLUM, and the BRAIN STEM. Major categories include INTRACRANIAL ARTERIOVENOUS MALFORMATIONS; BRAIN ISCHEMIA; CEREBRAL HEMORRHAGE; and others. Brain Vascular Disorders,Intracranial Vascular Disorders,Vascular Diseases, Intracranial,Cerebrovascular Diseases,Cerebrovascular Insufficiency,Cerebrovascular Occlusion,Brain Vascular Disorder,Cerebrovascular Disease,Cerebrovascular Disorder,Cerebrovascular Insufficiencies,Cerebrovascular Occlusions,Disease, Cerebrovascular,Diseases, Cerebrovascular,Insufficiencies, Cerebrovascular,Insufficiency, Cerebrovascular,Intracranial Vascular Disease,Intracranial Vascular Diseases,Intracranial Vascular Disorder,Occlusion, Cerebrovascular,Occlusions, Cerebrovascular,Vascular Disease, Intracranial,Vascular Disorder, Brain,Vascular Disorder, Intracranial,Vascular Disorders, Brain,Vascular Disorders, Intracranial
D003953 Diagnosis-Related Groups A system for classifying patient care by relating common characteristics such as diagnosis, treatment, and age to an expected consumption of hospital resources and length of stay. Its purpose is to provide a framework for specifying case mix and to reduce hospital costs and reimbursements and it forms the cornerstone of the prospective payment system. Case Mix,DRG,Diagnosis Related Group,Diagnosis-Related Group,Case Mixes,DRGs,Diagnostic-Related Group,Group, Diagnostic-Related,Groups, Diagnostic-Related,Diagnosis Related Groups,Diagnostic Related Group,Diagnostic-Related Groups,Group, Diagnosis Related,Group, Diagnosis-Related,Group, Diagnostic Related,Groups, Diagnosis Related,Groups, Diagnosis-Related,Groups, Diagnostic Related,Related Group, Diagnosis,Related Groups, Diagnosis
D006278 Medicare Federal program, created by Public Law 89-97, Title XVIII-Health Insurance for the Aged, a 1965 amendment to the Social Security Act, that provides health insurance benefits to persons over the age of 65 and others eligible for Social Security benefits. It consists of two separate but coordinated programs: hospital insurance (MEDICARE PART A) and supplementary medical insurance (MEDICARE PART B). (Hospital Administration Terminology, AHA, 2d ed and A Discursive Dictionary of Health Care, US House of Representatives, 1976) Health Insurance for Aged and Disabled, Title 18,Insurance, Health, for Aged and Disabled,Health Insurance for Aged, Disabled, Title 18,Health Insurance for Aged, Title 18
D006333 Heart Failure A heterogeneous condition in which the heart is unable to pump out sufficient blood to meet the metabolic need of the body. Heart failure can be caused by structural defects, functional abnormalities (VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION), or a sudden overload beyond its capacity. Chronic heart failure is more common than acute heart failure which results from sudden insult to cardiac function, such as MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION. Cardiac Failure,Heart Decompensation,Congestive Heart Failure,Heart Failure, Congestive,Heart Failure, Left-Sided,Heart Failure, Right-Sided,Left-Sided Heart Failure,Myocardial Failure,Right-Sided Heart Failure,Decompensation, Heart,Heart Failure, Left Sided,Heart Failure, Right Sided,Left Sided Heart Failure,Right Sided Heart Failure
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes

Related Publications

N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
January 1985, Statistics in medicine,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
November 1994, Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.),
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
June 2002, Genetic epidemiology,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
January 1999, Statistics in medicine,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
January 1991, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
September 1989, Journal of the American Statistical Association,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
January 1991, Statistics in medicine,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
February 2005, Statistical methods in medical research,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
October 1993, Statistics in medicine,
N Thomas, and N T Longford, and J E Rolph
January 2008, Epidemiologia e prevenzione,
Copied contents to your clipboard!