Biomaterial Database

Forecasting the demand for inpatient services for specific chronic conditions. 1994

J J Hisnanick

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, National Center for Veterans Analysis & Statistics, Washington, DC 20420.

While the proposed forecasting methodology has a well-established record in evaluating economic time-series, there is minimal, if any, use of this technique in projecting hospitalizations for specific chronic conditions. Using an established taxonomy of disease codes for alcoholism and alcohol abuse in a national inpatient database, a monthly time-series of hospitalizations was modeled. The model derived in both statistically adequate and accurate in forecasting future monthly demand for inpatient hospitalizations. This type of model specifications could be used by hospital planners and policy makers in evaluating monthly resources for specific chronic conditions.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D002908	Chronic Disease	Diseases which have one or more of the following characteristics: they are permanent, leave residual disability, are caused by nonreversible pathological alteration, require special training of the patient for rehabilitation, or may be expected to require a long period of supervision, observation, or care (Dictionary of Health Services Management, 2d ed). For epidemiological studies chronic disease often includes HEART DISEASES; STROKE; CANCER; and diabetes (DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2).	Chronic Condition,Chronic Illness,Chronically Ill,Chronic Conditions,Chronic Diseases,Chronic Illnesses,Condition, Chronic,Disease, Chronic,Illness, Chronic
D003198	Computer Simulation	Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.	Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D003625	Data Collection	Systematic gathering of data for a particular purpose from various sources, including questionnaires, interviews, observation, existing records, and electronic devices. The process is usually preliminary to statistical analysis of the data.	Data Collection Methods,Dual Data Collection,Collection Method, Data,Collection Methods, Data,Collection, Data,Collection, Dual Data,Data Collection Method,Method, Data Collection,Methods, Data Collection
D003953	Diagnosis-Related Groups	A system for classifying patient care by relating common characteristics such as diagnosis, treatment, and age to an expected consumption of hospital resources and length of stay. Its purpose is to provide a framework for specifying case mix and to reduce hospital costs and reimbursements and it forms the cornerstone of the prospective payment system.	Case Mix,DRG,Diagnosis Related Group,Diagnosis-Related Group,Case Mixes,DRGs,Diagnostic-Related Group,Group, Diagnostic-Related,Groups, Diagnostic-Related,Diagnosis Related Groups,Diagnostic Related Group,Diagnostic-Related Groups,Group, Diagnosis Related,Group, Diagnosis-Related,Group, Diagnostic Related,Groups, Diagnosis Related,Groups, Diagnosis-Related,Groups, Diagnostic Related,Related Group, Diagnosis,Related Groups, Diagnosis
D005544	Forecasting	The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology.	Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006301	Health Services Needs and Demand	Health services required by a population or community as well as the health services that the population or community is able and willing to pay for.	Health Services Needs,Needs,Needs and Demand, Health Services,Target Population,Health Services Need,Need, Health Services,Needs, Health Services,Population, Target,Populations, Target,Target Populations
D006760	Hospitalization	The confinement of a patient in a hospital.	Hospitalizations
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000437	Alcoholism	A primary, chronic disease with genetic, psychosocial, and environmental factors influencing its development and manifestations. The disease is often progressive and fatal. It is characterized by impaired control over drinking, preoccupation with the drug alcohol, use of alcohol despite adverse consequences, and distortions in thinking, most notably denial. Each of these symptoms may be continuous or periodic. (Morse & Flavin for the Joint Commission of the National Council on Alcoholism and Drug Dependence and the American Society of Addiction Medicine to Study the Definition and Criteria for the Diagnosis of Alcoholism: in JAMA 1992;268:1012-4)	Alcohol Abuse,Alcoholic Intoxication, Chronic,Ethanol Abuse,Alcohol Addiction,Alcohol Dependence,Alcohol Use Disorder,Abuse, Alcohol,Abuse, Ethanol,Addiction, Alcohol,Alcohol Use Disorders,Chronic Alcoholic Intoxication,Dependence, Alcohol,Intoxication, Chronic Alcoholic,Use Disorders, Alcohol
D015233	Models, Statistical	Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc.	Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model