Linear time series analysis of long term fetal heart rate variability patterns. 1993

M A Shariati, and J H Dripps, and H Shariati, and K Boddy
University of Edinburgh, Department of Electical Engineering, UK.

Long term fetal heart rate variability (LFHRV) is equivalent to detrended (when the time series trend removed) indirectly derived averaged fetal heart rate (FHR) time series. Up to now LFHRV is looked for visually in FHR traces, by obstetricians and midwifes for determination of fetal condition. The detrended averaged FHR data or LFHRV data is a random correlated non-stationary (in second moment) time series. In this paper we have applied linear stochastic time series analysis technique to identify a parsimonious stochastic model, for parametric numerical representation of the random cyclical patterns observed in short 2 minutes quasi-stationary contiguous blocks of LFHRV data. The parametric estimation technique used is based upon the optimum exact Maximum likelihood estimation (which uses Kalman filtering as part of its implementation). Diagnostics performed on the residuals indicated that a second order autoregressive model is a statistically adequate model in capturing variability patterns observed in 2 minute data windows of detrended average FHR. Also through further analysis of the spectral behavior of this identified model, pseudo-periodicity (or random periodicity) which for a long time was visually detected, can now be detected via this numerical procedure.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008955 Models, Cardiovascular Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of the cardiovascular system, processes, or phenomena; includes the use of mathematical equations, computers and other electronic equipment. Cardiovascular Model,Cardiovascular Models,Model, Cardiovascular
D010507 Periodicity The tendency of a phenomenon to recur at regular intervals; in biological systems, the recurrence of certain activities (including hormonal, cellular, neural) may be annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, or more frequently (ultradian). Cyclicity,Rhythmicity,Biological Rhythms,Bioperiodicity,Biorhythms,Biological Rhythm,Bioperiodicities,Biorhythm,Cyclicities,Periodicities,Rhythm, Biological,Rhythmicities,Rhythms, Biological
D011247 Pregnancy The status during which female mammals carry their developing young (EMBRYOS or FETUSES) in utero before birth, beginning from FERTILIZATION to BIRTH. Gestation,Pregnancies
D005260 Female Females
D005323 Fetal Monitoring Physiologic or biochemical monitoring of the fetus. It is usually done during LABOR, OBSTETRIC and may be performed in conjunction with the monitoring of uterine activity. It may also be performed prenatally as when the mother is undergoing surgery. Monitoring, Fetal,Fetal Monitorings,Monitorings, Fetal
D006340 Heart Rate, Fetal The heart rate of the FETUS. The normal range at term is between 120 and 160 beats per minute. Fetal Heart Rate,Fetal Heart Rates,Heart Rates, Fetal,Rate, Fetal Heart,Rates, Fetal Heart
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D013269 Stochastic Processes Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables. Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic
D016013 Likelihood Functions Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Likelihood Ratio Test,Maximum Likelihood Estimates,Estimate, Maximum Likelihood,Estimates, Maximum Likelihood,Function, Likelihood,Functions, Likelihood,Likelihood Function,Maximum Likelihood Estimate,Test, Likelihood Ratio

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