Identifying elderly patients for early discharge after hospitalization for hip fracture. 1993

M D Ensberg, and M J Paletta, and A T Galecki, and C L Dacko, and B E Fries
Division of General Internal Medicine, Michigan State University, Lansing.

BACKGROUND Some elderly patients can be successfully treated in hospitals with lengths of stay (LOS) shorter than the norms developed by the diagnosis-related groups. This study was designed to test the hypothesis that elderly patients with short LOS after hip fracture have characteristics that can be identified shortly after hospital admission. METHODS A retrospective chart review was performed of 216 patients over age 55 discharged alive from a university hospital after hip fracture. Demographic, medical, and functional data available within 48 hours of admission were used to develop an algorithm to identify patients eligible for early discharge. A prospective study of an additional 33 patients was undertaken to test this algorithm and to examine the predictive value of additional functional and psychosocial information not routinely recorded in the chart. RESULTS Retrospective chart review identified 4 predictors of short LOS in multivariate analysis: age less than 75, admission from a nursing home, normality of admission laboratory results, and "no surgery or surgery by day three." These variables explain 25% of the total variation of LOS. In our prospective study the variable "day of surgery" had the greatest variance explanation (30.5%) in multivariate analysis. A model including day of surgery and the presence of dementia explained 42.5% of the variance of LOS. CONCLUSIONS Short LOS can be predicted within 48 hours of admission utilizing data that measure severity of illness, functional status, and available support. The development of algorithms to identify patients eligible for early discharge would be beneficial to care managers.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007902 Length of Stay The period of confinement of a patient to a hospital or other health facility. Hospital Stay,Hospital Stays,Stay Length,Stay Lengths,Stay, Hospital,Stays, Hospital
D008499 Medical Records Recording of pertinent information concerning patient's illness or illnesses. Health Diaries,Medical Transcription,Records, Medical,Transcription, Medical,Diaries, Health,Diary, Health,Health Diary,Medical Record,Medical Transcriptions,Record, Medical,Transcriptions, Medical
D008824 Michigan State bounded on the north by the Great Lakes, on the east by Canada, on the south by Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio, and on the west by Lake Michigan and Wisconsin.
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D010351 Patient Discharge The administrative process of discharging the patient, alive or dead, from hospitals or other health facilities. Discharge Planning,Discharge Plannings,Discharge, Patient,Discharges, Patient,Patient Discharges,Planning, Discharge,Plannings, Discharge
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D006620 Hip Fractures Fractures of the FEMUR HEAD; the FEMUR NECK; (FEMORAL NECK FRACTURES); the trochanters; or the inter- or subtrochanteric region. Excludes fractures of the acetabulum and fractures of the femoral shaft below the subtrochanteric region (FEMORAL FRACTURES). Femoral Trochlear Fractures,Intertrochanteric Fractures,Subtrochanteric Fractures,Trochanteric Fractures,Trochlear Fractures, Femur,Femoral Trochlear Fracture,Femur Trochlear Fracture,Femur Trochlear Fractures,Fracture, Femoral Trochlear,Fracture, Femur Trochlear,Fractures, Femoral Trochlear,Fractures, Femur Trochlear,Fractures, Hip,Fractures, Intertrochanteric,Fractures, Subtrochanteric,Fractures, Trochanteric,Trochlear Fracture, Femoral,Trochlear Fracture, Femur,Trochlear Fractures, Femoral
D006785 Hospitals, University Hospitals maintained by a university for the teaching of medical students, postgraduate training programs, and clinical research. University Hospitals

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