A comparison of methods for estimating mortality parameters from survival data. 1993

D L Wilson
Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124.

The Gompertz mortality function, Rm = R0e alpha t, is frequently used to describe changes in mortality rate (Rm) with time (t). In this paper, four methods for determining the best fit values of the two parameters, R0 and alpha, are compared. Three of the four methods use the Gompertz mortality function with mortality rate estimates derived from survival data to determine the best fit values for the two parameters. All three confront problems. The fourth method uses the Gompertz survival function, which can be derived from the Gompertz mortality function and which allows one to use survival data directly. It thereby avoids the problems and generally gives the best estimates for the two parameters. The use of the mortality function, with mortality rate estimates, confronts four distinct problems. One of these is caused by time intervals when zero organisms die. A second is caused by errors produced in estimating mortality rates from survival data. If too high a proportion of a population die in a given time interval, the mortality rate estimates are too low. A third problem is the sensitivity of the mortality-equation-based analyses to values at the end of the survival curve, where scatter in mortality values tends to be greater. A final problem occurs when time intervals greater than one time unit (day, week, year, etc.) are used in the analysis. Such problems with the use of mortality rates to estimate parameter values are revealed when the calculated parameters are used to produce a survival curve, or when known values of R0 and alpha are used to generate survival data. This paper introduces a non-linear regression analysis, using a Simplex algorithm to fit parameters R0 and alpha in the Gompertz Survival function and concludes that it gives more reliable and consistent results with a variety of data than do three methods that use the mortality function.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008136 Longevity The normal length of time of an organism's life. Length of Life,Life Span,Lifespan,Life Spans,Lifespans
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D001699 Biometry The use of statistical and mathematical methods to analyze biological observations and phenomena. Biometric Analysis,Biometrics,Analyses, Biometric,Analysis, Biometric,Biometric Analyses
D012984 Software Sequential operating programs and data which instruct the functioning of a digital computer. Computer Programs,Computer Software,Open Source Software,Software Engineering,Software Tools,Computer Applications Software,Computer Programs and Programming,Computer Software Applications,Application, Computer Software,Applications Software, Computer,Applications Softwares, Computer,Applications, Computer Software,Computer Applications Softwares,Computer Program,Computer Software Application,Engineering, Software,Open Source Softwares,Program, Computer,Programs, Computer,Software Application, Computer,Software Applications, Computer,Software Tool,Software, Computer,Software, Computer Applications,Software, Open Source,Softwares, Computer Applications,Softwares, Open Source,Source Software, Open,Source Softwares, Open,Tool, Software,Tools, Software
D016016 Proportional Hazards Models Statistical models used in survival analysis that assert that the effect of the study factors on the hazard rate in the study population is multiplicative and does not change over time. Cox Model,Cox Proportional Hazards Model,Hazard Model,Hazards Model,Hazards Models,Models, Proportional Hazards,Proportional Hazard Model,Proportional Hazards Model,Cox Models,Cox Proportional Hazards Models,Hazard Models,Proportional Hazard Models,Hazard Model, Proportional,Hazard Models, Proportional,Hazards Model, Proportional,Hazards Models, Proportional,Model, Cox,Model, Hazard,Model, Hazards,Model, Proportional Hazard,Model, Proportional Hazards,Models, Cox,Models, Hazard,Models, Hazards,Models, Proportional Hazard
D016019 Survival Analysis A class of statistical procedures for estimating the survival function (function of time, starting with a population 100% well at a given time and providing the percentage of the population still well at later times). The survival analysis is then used for making inferences about the effects of treatments, prognostic factors, exposures, and other covariates on the function. Analysis, Survival,Analyses, Survival,Survival Analyses
D017173 Caenorhabditis elegans A species of nematode that is widely used in biological, biochemical, and genetic studies. Caenorhabditis elegan,elegan, Caenorhabditis

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