Although portoenterostomy has greatly improved the prognosis of extrahepatic biliary atresia (EHBA), 10-20% of patients still die before 5 y of age, and the only treatment option is liver transplantation (LT). To investigate whether these patients may be identified at an early stage, when the changes of successful LT are optimal, we have measured serum concentrations of hyaluronic acid (HA), the amino-terminal propeptide of type III procollagen (PIIINP) and the carboxy-terminal and amino-terminal propeptides of type I procollagen (PICP, PINP) in 24 selected patients with EHBA, both before portoenterostomy and then every 6 mo until death (n = 10, age at death = 7-20 mo), LT (n = 6, age at LT = 1.1-4.8 y) or 5 y of age (n = 8). Raised serum HA above 200 micrograms/L before portoenterostomy identified those patients who would die or require LT in the first 5 y of life with a positive predictive value of 88%; after portoenterostomy, longitudinal changes in HA reflected clinical status in each patient. None of the other three markers was of prognostic value, and only PIIINP showed any relationship with clinical status, and then only up to 1.5 y. Interestingly, PINP (but not PICP) tended to be low in all patients before portoenterostomy and may reflect impaired bone collagen metabolism during early skeletal changes in EHBA. This study therefore suggests that measurement of serum HA may be a useful complementary test in EHBA, particularly in identifying, at an early stage, those patients who should be considered for LT.