Medical and psychosocial predictors of morbidity and mortality: results of a 26 year follow-up. 1996

J H Bernstein, and S Carmel
Department of the Sociology of Health, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel.

This study investigates the extent to which sociodemographic, medical and psychosocial factors measured in 1967 among 1,649 American-born Israelis predict their physical and emotional health status 26 years later. In 1993, mail questionnaires were completed by 673 (40.8%) of the 1967 respondents. Evidence was obtained regarding the death of 204 (12.4%) of the 1967 respondents. The 1967 predictor variables included: sociodemographic characteristics, self-assessed health and medical risk factors, and psychosocial resources. The 1993 outcome variables included a multidimensional measure of health, physical functioning, and emotional well-being. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to determine the predictive power of the variables measured in 1967 on the 1993 health outcomes, controlling for potential confounders. These analyses showed that the deceased in 1993 were older than the respondents; in 1967 they had reported more health problems and had more medical risk factors; they also had less formal education, were less likely to be married, and had lower adjustment scores than the respondents. Among the 1993 respondents, the addition of psychosocial variables to the explanation of health outcomes, controlling for sociodemographic and medical risk factors, contributes strongly (13%) to emotional well-being. Their contribution to general health and physical functioning is weak (2 to 3%), but statistically significant. These results show the importance of a multifactorial approach to the long-term prediction of health and illness outcomes.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007557 Israel A country in the Middle East, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, between Egypt and Lebanon. The capital is Jerusalem.
D007585 Jews An ethnic group with historical ties to the land of ISRAEL and the religion of JUDAISM. Jew
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009017 Morbidity The proportion of patients with a particular disease during a given year per given unit of population. Morbidities
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011795 Surveys and Questionnaires Collections of data obtained from voluntary subjects. The information usually takes the form of answers to questions, or suggestions. Community Survey,Nonrespondent,Questionnaire,Questionnaires,Respondent,Survey,Survey Method,Survey Methods,Surveys,Baseline Survey,Community Surveys,Methodology, Survey,Nonrespondents,Questionnaire Design,Randomized Response Technique,Repeated Rounds of Survey,Respondents,Survey Methodology,Baseline Surveys,Design, Questionnaire,Designs, Questionnaire,Methods, Survey,Questionnaire Designs,Questionnaires and Surveys,Randomized Response Techniques,Response Technique, Randomized,Response Techniques, Randomized,Survey, Baseline,Survey, Community,Surveys, Baseline,Surveys, Community,Techniques, Randomized Response
D004641 Emigration and Immigration The process of leaving one's country to establish residence in a foreign country. Immigration,Labor Migration,Border Crossing,Chain Migration,Emigration,In-Migration,International Migration,Out-Migration,Return Migration,Settlement and Resettlement,Temporary Migration,Turnaround Migration,Border Crossings,Chain Migrations,Crossing, Border,Crossings, Border,Emigrations,Immigration and Emigration,Immigrations,In Migration,In-Migrations,International Migrations,Labor Migrations,Migration, Chain,Migration, International,Migration, Labor,Migration, Return,Migration, Temporary,Migration, Turnaround,Migrations, Chain,Migrations, International,Migrations, Labor,Migrations, Return,Migrations, Temporary,Migrations, Turnaround,Out Migration,Out-Migrations,Resettlement and Settlement,Return Migrations,Temporary Migrations,Turnaround Migrations
D005260 Female Females

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