A scoring system for predicting group A streptococcal throat infection. 1996

F Dobbs
Irish College of General Practitioners, Drumcliffe, Republic of Ireland.

BACKGROUND Sore throat is very common in general practice and is usually caused by viral infection. Nevertheless, up to 95% of patients may be treated with antibiotics. Previous diagnostic systems have not transferred well from one area to another because of an inability to allow for changing prevalence of streptococcus. OBJECTIVE To measure the occurrence rates of symptoms and signs in sore throat patients with and without streptococcal infection, and to develop a Bayesian scoring system which is easily adapted for prevalence to predict if patients have bacterial infection. METHODS Occurrence rates of symptoms and signs were measured for 206 patients with sore throat symptoms over a 3-year period. Bayesian probability scores (B-scores) for each data item were calculated from the ocurrence rates in the patients with positive throat cultures for group A streptococci and the rates in patients with negative throat cultures. The B-score values were then used to predict the probability of positive culture for each patient. RESULTS The streptococcal throat B-score system predicted positive culture with a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 71%. In comparison, the unaided general practitioners predicted infection with a sensitivity of 61% and a specificity of 65%. If the B-score prediction had been used to decide on treatment, more patients with streptococci present on culture would have been treated with antibiotic (71% instead of 68%) and appreciably fewer patients with negative streptococcal cultures would have been treated (29% instead of 59%). CONCLUSIONS Use of the B-score system could result in significant savings in unnecessary antibiotic prescription, and unnecessary throat swab cultures, while achieving better levels of treatment.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D010612 Pharyngitis Inflammation of the throat (PHARYNX). Sore Throat,Pharyngitides,Sore Throats,Throat, Sore
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D002675 Child, Preschool A child between the ages of 2 and 5. Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes

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