Age-specific prostate-specific antigen: a reassessment. 1996

R Etzioni, and Y Shen, and J C Petteway, and M K Brawer
Program in BiostatisticS, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington, USA.

BACKGROUND Our objective was to compare expected survival benefits when screening for prostate cancer with PSA, using an age-specific bound relative to a cutoff of 4.0 ng/ml. METHODS We used a decision analysis modeling the cancer yield in a cohort screened by both screening tests, and the survival of cancer cases given screen detection and in the absence of screening. Expected cancer yields and positive predictive values were from an ultrasound-guided biopsy series. Stage distributions of screen-detected cases were obtained from the literature. For localized causes, survival given screen detection was assumed to be equal to normal life expectancy for the population. For these cases, survival in the absence of screening was modeled as time from clinical diagnosis to death added to time remaining after time of screen and before clinical diagnosis was made (lead time). For nonlocalized cases at screen detection, survival given screen detection was assumed to be equal to survival in the absence of screening. The average difference between expected survival with and without screening as calculated for age-specific PSA and for PSA > 4.0 ng/ml and compared. RESULTS Average years of life saved per subject screened using PSA > 4.0 ng/ml were comparable to those using the age-specific bound. Average years of life saved per cancer case, however, appeared to be potentially greater for PSA > 4.0 ng/ml than for age-specific. PSA. PSA > 4.0 ng/ml detected markedly more prostate cancer cases than age-specific PSA. CONCLUSIONS Using a bound of 4.0 ng/ml for all ages appears to be more efficient in identifying men with cancer in a screening cohort, which translates into a greater expected survival benefit per cancer case.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008017 Life Expectancy Based on known statistical data, the number of years which any person of a given age may reasonably be expected to live. Life Extension,Years of Potential Life Lost,Expectancies, Life,Expectancy, Life,Life Expectancies
D008297 Male Males
D008403 Mass Screening Organized periodic procedures performed on large groups of people for the purpose of detecting disease. Screening,Mass Screenings,Screening, Mass,Screenings,Screenings, Mass
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011471 Prostatic Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the PROSTATE. Cancer of Prostate,Prostate Cancer,Cancer of the Prostate,Neoplasms, Prostate,Neoplasms, Prostatic,Prostate Neoplasms,Prostatic Cancer,Cancer, Prostate,Cancer, Prostatic,Cancers, Prostate,Cancers, Prostatic,Neoplasm, Prostate,Neoplasm, Prostatic,Prostate Cancers,Prostate Neoplasm,Prostatic Cancers,Prostatic Neoplasm
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000369 Aged, 80 and over Persons 80 years of age and older. Oldest Old
D000375 Aging The gradual irreversible changes in structure and function of an organism that occur as a result of the passage of time. Senescence,Aging, Biological,Biological Aging
D001706 Biopsy Removal and pathologic examination of specimens from the living body. Biopsies

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