Predictors of long-term survival in patients with malignant ventricular arrhythmias. 1997

J A Gomes, and D Mehta, and J Ip, and S L Winters, and J Camunas, and A Ergin, and T T Newhouse, and E Pe
Department of Medicine, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, New York 10029, USA.

The study consisted of 369 patients (age 62 +/- 13 years) who presented to our institution from April 1984 to April 1994 for malignant ventricular arrhythmias presenting as sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) in 57% of patients, ventricular fibrillation in 25% of patients, and syncope due to VT in 17% of patients. Coronary artery disease was present in 74% of patients, cardiomyopathy in 19% of patients, and no evident heart disease in 7% of patients. Two hundred twenty-one patients were given drug, therapy, 47 patients underwent arrhythmia surgery, and 75 patients had an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). During a mean follow-up of 30 months (range 1 to 101), 66 patients (18%) died from a cardiac death of which 26 (39%) were sudden. Cox regression analysis was conducted utilizing a total of 19 variables (clinical and therapeutic) in the entire population and separately in patients with coronary artery disease and cardiomyopathy. The most significant variables (multivariate analysis) of survival from cardiac mortality in the entire population were: congestive heart failure (CHF) class (p = 0.0003), ejection fraction (p = 0.02), and the use of drug therapy (p = 0.03); in patients with coronary artery disease, CHF class (p = 0.0001) and ejection fraction (p = 0.0006); and in patients with cardiomyopathy, CHF class (p = 0.009) and sustained VT on Holter monitoring (p = 0.007). Kaplan-Meier survival rates from cardiac death were: significantly lower (p = 0.005) in patients with CHF class III and IV compared with CHF class I and II (25% vs 58%, p = 0.005) with drug therapy; marginally significant (47% vs 88%, p = 0.06) from 20 to 40 months in patients with an ICD; and nonsignificant in patients who underwent arrhythmia surgery (63% vs 71%). Patients with an ICD had a better expected survival (82%) than patients who had arrhythmia surgery (69%) and drug therapy (65%). Thus, in patients with malignant ventricular arrhythmias, CHF class was the most significant independent predictor of survival from cardiac mortality over all disease substrates, and therapy influenced survival depending on the CHF class. Patients in CHF class III and IV who underwent arrhythmia surgery or had an ICD had a better expected survival than those taking drug therapy, and the negative impact of antiarrhythmic therapy was most prominent in patients with CHF class III and IV.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D005260 Female Females
D006333 Heart Failure A heterogeneous condition in which the heart is unable to pump out sufficient blood to meet the metabolic need of the body. Heart failure can be caused by structural defects, functional abnormalities (VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION), or a sudden overload beyond its capacity. Chronic heart failure is more common than acute heart failure which results from sudden insult to cardiac function, such as MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION. Cardiac Failure,Heart Decompensation,Congestive Heart Failure,Heart Failure, Congestive,Heart Failure, Left-Sided,Heart Failure, Right-Sided,Left-Sided Heart Failure,Myocardial Failure,Right-Sided Heart Failure,Decompensation, Heart,Heart Failure, Left Sided,Heart Failure, Right Sided,Left Sided Heart Failure,Right Sided Heart Failure
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D015999 Multivariate Analysis A set of techniques used when variation in several variables are studied simultaneously. In statistics, multivariate analysis is interpreted as any analytic method that allows simultaneous study of two or more dependent variables. Analysis, Multivariate,Multivariate Analyses
D016019 Survival Analysis A class of statistical procedures for estimating the survival function (function of time, starting with a population 100% well at a given time and providing the percentage of the population still well at later times). The survival analysis is then used for making inferences about the effects of treatments, prognostic factors, exposures, and other covariates on the function. Analysis, Survival,Analyses, Survival,Survival Analyses

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