Confidence intervals and test of hypotheses concerning dose response relations inferred from animal carcinogenicity data. 1977

K S Crump, and H A Guess, and K L Deal

Confidence intervals and hypothesis tests are developed for dose-response relations based on dichotomous data from animal carcinogenicity experiments. The functional form of the dose-response curve comes from the Armitage-Doll multistage carcinogenesis model and involves a polynomial in the dose-rate, with non-negative coefficients. Asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators of these coefficients are used to construct confidence bounds on risk at a given dose and on the dose corresponding to a given risk. Likelihood ratio tests are developed for the presence of a positive dose-related effect and for the existence of a positive slope to the dose-response curve at zero dose. The latter test is of practical importance since a positive slope of the dose-response curve at zero dose rules out any "threshold-like" behavior and would often mean that any concentration low enough to insure a negligibly low cancer risk (e.g., 10(-6)) would be too low to be economically useful for applications such as food additives. Simulation experiments are performed to provide guidelines for applying the theory.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008433 Mathematics The deductive study of shape, quantity, and dependence. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Mathematic
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D002273 Carcinogens Substances that increase the risk of NEOPLASMS in humans or animals. Both genotoxic chemicals, which affect DNA directly, and nongenotoxic chemicals, which induce neoplasms by other mechanism, are included. Carcinogen,Oncogen,Oncogens,Tumor Initiator,Tumor Initiators,Tumor Promoter,Tumor Promoters,Initiator, Tumor,Initiators, Tumor,Promoter, Tumor,Promoters, Tumor
D003634 DDT A polychlorinated pesticide that is resistant to destruction by light and oxidation. Its unusual stability has resulted in difficulties in residue removal from water, soil, and foodstuffs. This substance may reasonably be anticipated to be a carcinogen: Fourth Annual Report on Carcinogens (NTP-85-002, 1985). (From Merck Index, 11th ed) 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane,4,4'-DDT,4,4'-Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane,Benzochloryl,Chlorophenothane,TbisC-ethane,p',p'-DDT,4,4' DDT,4,4' Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane,TbisC ethane
D004026 Dieldrin An organochlorine insecticide whose use has been cancelled or suspended in the United States. It has been used to control locusts, tropical disease vectors, in termite control by direct soil injection, and non-food seed and plant treatment. (From HSDB) Alvit-55,Alvit 55,Alvit55
D004128 Dimethylnitrosamine A nitrosamine derivative with alkylating, carcinogenic, and mutagenic properties. It causes serious liver damage and is a hepatocarcinogen in rodents. Nitrosodimethylamine,N-Nitrosodimethylamine,NDMA Nitrosodimethylamine,N Nitrosodimethylamine,Nitrosodimethylamine, NDMA
D004305 Dose-Response Relationship, Drug The relationship between the dose of an administered drug and the response of the organism to the drug. Dose Response Relationship, Drug,Dose-Response Relationships, Drug,Drug Dose-Response Relationship,Drug Dose-Response Relationships,Relationship, Drug Dose-Response,Relationships, Drug Dose-Response
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012306 Risk The probability that an event will occur. It encompasses a variety of measures of the probability of a generally unfavorable outcome. Relative Risk,Relative Risks,Risk, Relative,Risks,Risks, Relative

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