Changing seasonality of mortality from coronary heart disease. 1997

D Seretakis, and P Lagiou, and L Lipworth, and L B Signorello, and K J Rothman, and D Trichopoulos
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.

BACKGROUND Coronary heart disease is the major cause of mortality in the United States. Factors associated with coronary risk are important to identify. Coronary mortality is greater during the winter months. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether declining coronary mortality has been accompanied by a change in the seasonal pattern and to investigate the hypothesis that diminishing exposures to environmental cold and heat have affected the seasonal pattern. METHODS We used published data on coronary mortality by year to evaluate the time trend in the seasonal pattern. We fit a sine curve to the monthly frequency of deaths in each year and examined the trend over time in the ratio of the peak to the trough of the curve. METHODS We used monthly coronary deaths in the United States from 1937 through 1991. Deaths by cause and month were not available by geographic area within the United States, but we were able to examine total monthly deaths in 2 regions with contrasting climates, New England and the South. METHODS We used the yearly peak-to-trough ratio as our primary outcome and assessed its trend over time by linear regression. We also depicted the time trends using polynomial smoothing. RESULTS The peak-to-trough ratio diminished by about 2% per year until around 1970, when the trend reversed. In New England, the decline was steeper than in the South, as measured from all deaths. CONCLUSIONS Seasonal patterns in coronary mortality in the United States have changed with time. These changes are compatible with the gradual expansion of adequate heating and the subsequent increased use of air-conditioning. Microclimatic influences on coronary mortality could explain in part the socioeconomic gradient of cardiovascular mortality.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D009511 New England The geographic area of New England in general and when the specific state or states are not indicated. States usually included in this region are Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. Northeastern United States
D003080 Cold Temperature An absence of warmth or heat or a temperature notably below an accustomed norm. Cold,Cold Temperatures,Temperature, Cold,Temperatures, Cold
D003327 Coronary Disease An imbalance between myocardial functional requirements and the capacity of the CORONARY VESSELS to supply sufficient blood flow. It is a form of MYOCARDIAL ISCHEMIA (insufficient blood supply to the heart muscle) caused by a decreased capacity of the coronary vessels. Coronary Heart Disease,Coronary Diseases,Coronary Heart Diseases,Disease, Coronary,Disease, Coronary Heart,Diseases, Coronary,Diseases, Coronary Heart,Heart Disease, Coronary,Heart Diseases, Coronary
D006358 Hot Temperature Presence of warmth or heat or a temperature notably higher than an accustomed norm. Heat,Hot Temperatures,Temperature, Hot,Temperatures, Hot
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D012959 Socioeconomic Factors Social and economic factors that characterize the individual or group within the social structure. Economic and Social Factors,Social Inequalities,Social Inequality,Social and Economic Factors,Socioeconomic Characteristics,Factors, Socioeconomic,High-Income Population,Land Tenure,Standard of Living,Characteristic, Socioeconomic,Factor, Socioeconomic,High Income Population,High-Income Populations,Inequality, Social,Living Standard,Living Standards,Population, High-Income,Socioeconomic Characteristic,Socioeconomic Factor,Tenure, Land
D014481 United States A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D015144 Southeastern United States The geographic area of the southeastern region of the United States in general or when the specific state or states are not included. The states usually included in this region are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Virginia. Southeast U.S.,Southeast US

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