Quantitative risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers. 1998

M H Cassin, and A M Lammerding, and E C Todd, and W Ross, and R S McColl
Decisionalysis Risk Consulting, Ottawa, ON, Canada.

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is a methodology used to organize and analyze scientific information to estimate the probability and severity of an adverse event. Applied to microbial food safety, the methodology can also help to identify those stages in the manufacture, distribution, handling, and consumption of foods that contribute to an increased risk of foodborne illness, and help focus resources and efforts to most effectively reduce the risk of foodborne pathogens. The term Process Risk Model (PRM) is introduced in this paper to describe the integration and application of QRA methodology with scenario analysis and predictive microbiology to provide an objective assessment of the hygienic characteristics of a manufacturing process. The methodology was applied to model the human health risk associated with Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef hamburgers. The PRM incorporated two mathematical submodels; the first was intended to described the behaviour of the pathogen from the production of the food through processing, handling, and consumption to predict human exposure. The exposure estimate was then used as input to a dose-response model to estimate the health risk associated with consuming food from the process. Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the effect of the uncertainty and variability in the model parameters on the predicted human health risk. The model predicted a probability of Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome of 3.7 x 10(-6) and a probability of mortality of 1.9 x 10(-7) per meal for the very young. These estimates are likely high for all hamburger meals, but may be reasonable for the home-prepared hamburgers described by this model. The efficacy of three risk mitigation strategies were evaluated by modifying the values of the predictive factors and comparing the new predicted risk. The average probability of illness was predicted to be reduced by 80% under a hypothetical mitigation strategy directed at reducing microbial growth during retail storage through a reduction in storage temperature. This strategy was predicted to be more effective than a hypothetical intervention which estimated a plausible reduction in the concentration of E. coli O157:H7 in the feces of cattle shedding the pathogen and one aimed at convincing consumers to cook hamburgers more thoroughly. The conclusions of this approach are only accurate to the extent that the model accurately represents the process. Currently, uncertainty and ignorance about the hygienic effects of the individual operations during production, processing, and handling limit the applicability of a PRM to specify HACCP criteria in a quantitative manner. However, with continuous improvement through stimulated research, a PRM should encompass all available information about the process, food, and pathogen and should be the most appropriate decision-support tool since it represents current knowledge.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008460 Meat The edible portions of any animal used for food including cattle, swine, goats/sheep, poultry, fish, shellfish, and game. Meats
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009010 Monte Carlo Method In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993) Method, Monte Carlo
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D002417 Cattle Domesticated bovine animals of the genus Bos, usually kept on a farm or ranch and used for the production of meat or dairy products or for heavy labor. Beef Cow,Bos grunniens,Bos indicus,Bos indicus Cattle,Bos taurus,Cow,Cow, Domestic,Dairy Cow,Holstein Cow,Indicine Cattle,Taurine Cattle,Taurus Cattle,Yak,Zebu,Beef Cows,Bos indicus Cattles,Cattle, Bos indicus,Cattle, Indicine,Cattle, Taurine,Cattle, Taurus,Cattles, Bos indicus,Cattles, Indicine,Cattles, Taurine,Cattles, Taurus,Cow, Beef,Cow, Dairy,Cow, Holstein,Cows,Dairy Cows,Domestic Cow,Domestic Cows,Indicine Cattles,Taurine Cattles,Taurus Cattles,Yaks,Zebus
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004927 Escherichia coli Infections Infections with bacteria of the species ESCHERICHIA COLI. E coli Infections,E. coli Infection,Infections, E coli,Infections, Escherichia coli,E coli Infection,E. coli Infections,Escherichia coli Infection,Infection, E coli,Infection, E. coli,Infection, Escherichia coli
D005243 Feces Excrement from the INTESTINES, containing unabsorbed solids, waste products, secretions, and BACTERIA of the DIGESTIVE SYSTEM.
D005511 Food Handling Any aspect of the operations in the preparation, processing, transport, storage, packaging, wrapping, exposure for sale, service, or delivery of food. Food Processing,Handling, Food,Processing, Food
D005516 Food Microbiology The presence of bacteria, viruses, and fungi in food and food products. This term is not restricted to pathogenic organisms: the presence of various non-pathogenic bacteria and fungi in cheeses and wines, for example, is included in this concept. Microbiology, Food

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