OBJECTIVE There is increasing evidence for patient-to-patient variation in the response of normal tissue to radiotherapy. Recently, it has been suggested that accumulation of functional fibrocytes may be a key step in the development of radiation-induced fibrosis. Therefore, we have examined a possible relationship between the differentiation state of untreated fibroblasts and the risk of radiation-induced subcutaneous fibrosis in individual patients. METHODS We used skin fibroblast cultures isolated from eight postmastectomy radiotherapy patients whose individual clinical radiosensitivity was assessed by the mean excess risk of fibrosis. Different types of potentially mitotic progenitor fibroblasts (MF) and postmitotic functional fibrocytes (PMF) in the terminal differentiation lineage, MFI --> MFII --> MFIII --> PMF, were scored morphologically in clonal culture. Progression of differentiation was quantified by the ratio L/E of colony-forming late (MFIII and late MFII) and early (MFI and early MFII) progenitors. RESULTS We observed a correlation between the ratio L/E and the mean risk of fibrosis (rs = 0.743, P = 0.03), indicating an approximately 10-fold increase in L/E with an increasing risk of fibrosis. This was paralleled by a decreasing trend in the absolute numbers of early progenitor types. By contrast, there was no significant correlation between the plating efficiency and the risk of fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS The data suggest that the risk of fibrosis increases with the progression of the differentiation of untreated progenitor fibroblasts, indicating that the progression of fibroblast differentiation may be a co-factor in the development of radiation-induced fibrosis. If this hypothesis is validated, it provides a rationale for a novel predictive test to identify patients with an increased risk of subcutaneous fibrosis.