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OBJECTIVE To evaluate factors predicting locoregional recurrence in patients treated for early breast carcinoma by breast conservation surgery with or without radiotherapy. METHODS A retrospective study of 256 patients was carried out, with special emphasis on the role of oestrogen receptor status. Other parameters studied included age, menopausal status, size of primary tumour, tumour type, axillary nodal status and adjuvant therapy. RESULTS Multivariate analysis showed the following parameters to be independent predictors of locoregional recurrence. Radiotherapy (57% reduction in hazard, P = 0.004): expression of oestrogen receptors (52% reduction in hazard, P = 0.008); tamoxifen therapy (46% reduction in hazard, P = 0.023); tumour size (40% increase in hazard per cm, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Within this study, lack of oestrogen receptor expression was a strong independent factor associated with a higher rate of locoregional recurrence. This may be of value in selecting a group of patients less suitable for breast conservation surgery.
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