Time series analysis of surveillance data of infectious diseases in Japan. 1998

A Sumi
Department of Hygiene and Preventive Medicine, Hokkaido University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Japan.

Temporal variational structures of long-term trends, recursive variations and seasonal variations were investigated, as to the incidence data of infectious diseases obtained from Infectious Diseases Surveillance Program in Japan by a newly devised procedure of time series analysis. In this procedure, three-dimensional spectral array indicates temporal variations of periodic structures of the incidence data, and is useful for investigating the long-term trend of the incidence data. Dominant spectral lines of the whole incidence data for each disease were assigned as the linear combinations of the fundamental modes. The optimum least squares fitting curve calculated with the fundamental modes essentially reproduces the recursive variation of the incidence data and an extension of the curve could be used to predict the incidence of the disease. Seasonal periodic modes of the incidences were estimated. The infectious diseases were classified into three basic groups (measles-, chickenpox- and mumps-patterns) and others, according to the resemblance of temporal variational structures of the incidence data.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007564 Japan A country in eastern Asia, island chain between the North Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan, east of the Korean Peninsula. The capital is Tokyo. Bonin Islands
D003141 Communicable Diseases An illness caused by an infectious agent or its toxins that occurs through the direct or indirect transmission of the infectious agent or its products from an infected individual or via an animal, vector or the inanimate environment to a susceptible animal or human host. Infectious Diseases,Communicable Disease,Disease, Communicable,Disease, Infectious,Diseases, Communicable,Diseases, Infectious,Infectious Disease
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D015991 Epidemiologic Measurements Statistical calculations on the occurrence of disease or other health-related conditions in defined populations. Measurements, Epidemiologic,Epidemiologic Measurement,Measurement, Epidemiologic
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