Seasonal patterns of deaths in Matlab, Bangladesh. 1998

S Becker, and S Weng
Department of Population Dynamics, School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205-2179, USA.

BACKGROUND Deaths exhibit a seasonal pattern in most parts of the world. Analyses of deaths for the years 1972-1974 from the vital registration system of Matlab, Bangladesh, published in this journal 17 years ago, showed sinusoidal seasonal patterns. As death rates have declined in other nations, the seasonal pattern is attenuated. Death rates have declined substantially in Bangladesh in the past two decades. Thus, the present study examines monthly counts of deaths from Matlab data for a period 15 years later and tests the hypothesis of a decrease or shift in seasonality over time. METHODS Trigonometric regression models were fit to monthly data by age and cause of death from the Matlab vital registration system for the years 1982-1990. A total of 20,328 death records were available for analyses. RESULTS In the recent period significant sinusoidal seasonal patterns are found in all but one of the age and cause of death groups. Total deaths peak in the winter as do neonatal deaths but post-neonatal and child deaths are maximum in April and July respectively. Among cause groups, injury deaths (mostly attributed to drowning) show the greatest seasonal swing. The time of peak has only shifted for one age group--neonates--since the 1972-1974 period. The magnitude of the seasonal swing has declined significantly only for the neonatal age group and injury cause of death group. CONCLUSIONS Marked seasonal patterns of deaths persist in the Matlab area of Bangladesh even as the level of mortality has declined.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007223 Infant A child between 1 and 23 months of age. Infants
D007231 Infant, Newborn An infant during the first 28 days after birth. Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D002675 Child, Preschool A child between the ages of 2 and 5. Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D002980 Climate The longterm manifestations of WEATHER. (McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Climates
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000293 Adolescent A person 13 to 18 years of age. Adolescence,Youth,Adolescents,Adolescents, Female,Adolescents, Male,Teenagers,Teens,Adolescent, Female,Adolescent, Male,Female Adolescent,Female Adolescents,Male Adolescent,Male Adolescents,Teen,Teenager,Youths

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