OBJECTIVE To measure the change in bone mineral density (BMD, g/cm2) in a female population with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) over 3 years, to identify factors predictive of bone loss, including the role of corticosteroid and disease related variables, and to determine the predictive value of urinary collagen crosslinks for bone loss. METHODS All premenopausal women with SLE who participated in a cross sectional study of BMD in 1994 were invited to undergo a standardized interview, examination, medical record review, and BMD measurement of the lumbar spine and femoral neck by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS Thirty-two women participated with a mean (SEM) age of 35.2 (1.5) years, duration of SLE of 7.0 (0.8) years, and mean (range) time to followup of 3.2 (2.9-3.4) years. Twenty-one subjects were exposed to corticosteroids during the study period with a mean (range) daily dose of prednisolone of 11.1 (2.8-22.9) mg. There was no significant change over the 3 years in BMD at the lumbar spine (1.161+/-0.122 vs. 1.169+/-0.022; p = 0.39) or femoral neck (0.944+/-0.023 vs. 0.955+/-0.020; p = 0.47) for the group as a whole, or when subjects were divided according to corticosteroid exposure. However, in the corticosteroid exposed subgroup, patients treated with > or = 7.5 mg/day (n = 14) lost lumbar spine BMD (-0.50%/yr) in contrast to those receiving <7.5 mg/day, who gained 1.06%/yr (p = 0.02). Furthermore, no participant receiving <7.5 mg/day lost lumbar spine BMD, while 57% of patients receiving > or =7.5 mg/day lost lumbar spine BMD (p = 0.01). In the corticosteroid exposed subgroup only, subjects who did not exercise regularly lost femoral neck BMD, while those who did gained femoral neck BMD (-0.54%/yr vs. 1.39%/yr; p = 0.02). Disease related variables (disease severity, activity, duration, functional capacity) and baseline urinary collagen crosslink levels were not predictive of BMD change. CONCLUSIONS Loss of lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD in this premenopausal female SLE population was minimal for the group as a whole; however, a daily dose of prednisolone of > or =7.5 mg was associated with loss of lumbar spine BMD. In corticosteroid exposed patients, regular exercise was protective of femoral neck BMD loss. A single baseline measurement of urinary collagen crosslinks was not predictive of bone loss.